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25 Dec, 9 tweets, 3 min read
#BMC2017 results for North Mumbai Lok Sabha -
Total wards: 42
BJP: 24
Sena:12
Cong: 6

BJP won (won/total wards) -
Dahisar: 3/6
Borivali: 5/7
Magathane: 1/7
Charkop: 5/7
Kandivali (E): 7/8
Malad (W): 3/7

#BMC2022
#BMC2017 North Mumbai LS -

Sena won (won/total wards) -
Dahisar: 3/6
Borivali: 1/7
Magathane: 6/7
Charkop: 1/7
Kandivali (E): 0/8
Malad (W): 1/7

Cong won (won/total wards) -
Dahisar: 0/6
Borivali: 1/7
Magathane: 0/7
Charkop: 1/7
Kandivali (E): 1/8
Malad (W): 3/7

#BMC2022
BJP has potential to win one more seat in Dahisar (Ward 1) where Ram Yadav of BJP had revolted and his wife had fought as an independent (reserved for women) and she came number 2. BJP official candidate stood 4th. Now Ram Yadav is back in BJP.
If he or his wife are given a ticket BJP will surely win in case of a BJP vs Sena vs Cong contest. It would be a tough fight in a BJP vs MVA contest though. 2017 gives a lead of 2000 votes to MVA over BJP+ independent, but the anti Sena votes of Cong will be lost for sure.
BJP has potential to increase its count in Magathane assembly seat as well. LoP in Council Pravin Darekar who was once MNS MLA from this seat has to pull in his weight. Esp after being given the LoP position.
MNS can help cut Sena votes in some of the wards in this assembly
Plus Congress which got good number of votes will lose a lot of Hindi bhashik and anti Sena votes (even if they dont fight in alliance with the Sena) due to the rise of Modi and Yogi. 2017 BMC polls predates the rise of Yogi in UP as a powerful and popular CM. This helps the BJP
Interestingly the NCP lost two sitting corporators to Sena in the form of Beena Doshi (Borivali - Ward 18) and Riddhi Khursange (Magathane - Ward 11). Both won on Sena ticket and are entrenched in their wards. Riddhi's husband Bhaskar was the NCP corporator before her
There are whispers of NCP turned 2 term Sena MLA Prakash Surve defecting to the BJP in Magathane. Surve is a local cable wallah turned politician who lost the seat in 2009 on a NCP ticket n then switched over to Sena to win 2014 n 2019.
Correction... NCP turned Sena corporator Sandhya Doshi from ward 18.
Beena Doshi is BJP corporator from neighbouring ward 17

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More from @MandarSawant184

Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
25 Dec
Bhau Torsekar on the problem Congress could pose to the Sena in BMC election (in Marathi)



#BMC2022
Bhau rightly points out that the appointment of trade union leader Bhai Jagtap as Mumbai Congress chief is a good move as he is an ambitious leader, unlike the earlier chiefs.
Cong which used to get anti Sena vote has lost it to the BJP in 2017 in Mumbai, as BJP is oppn to Sena
Bhai Jagtap is talking of Cong fighting on its own in BMC. There could be three reasons why he is talking like that,
1. Congress has lost strength in Mumbai. From 70 odd wards won in 2007 to 50 odd in 2012 and finally 30 odd in 2017, it has been a downward graph.
Read 7 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
21 Dec
MVA govt n Uddhav opposed Modi's pet project bullet train despite knowing that Mumbai - Ahmedabad is just the first stage of Mumbai - Ahmedabad - Delhi route.
Then u unwisely move the metro yard from best location Aarey to unwieldy Kanjur marg knowing litigation
Centre has always been claiming the land through salt department. It is not a new stand after 2019. But still CM did this only coz his son wanted it this way.
Now when courts have stopped the work, and no other solution seems possible Uddhav is talking of reconciliation on this.
They hope to strike a bargain on the bullet train project and Kanjur marg metro yard. Knowing Modi this does not seem possible. But MVA is still trying by putting name of Pawar into this.
Pawar himself may be using this opportunity to talk to Modi on other issues as well
Read 4 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
19 Dec
Most likely scenario in municipal elections in Mumbai. Sena fighting 130 odd and Congress less than 100 might be unacceptable to both. So seat adjustment in polls and post poll alliance might be the game
In mixed population ward, if BJP candidate was a Gujarati or Hindi bhashik; Congress would field a similar candidate to cause vote division. This would enable the Sena candidate dependent on Marathi votes to scrape through.
Plus Sena and Congress would make deals on wards. For example Waikar of Sena and Naseem Khan of Congress would make a deal to leave Jogeshwari wards to Sena and Chandivali/Powai wards to Congress.
Sena would not mobilize voters where alliance partner BJP would fight
Read 5 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
5 Dec
Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.

So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n
Read 4 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
24 Oct
Let us blame Sena of giving poor governance and being stupid in trying to get open vendetta against those opposing it. They never had the brains. But you cannot fault them for self preservation.
Alliance with BJP benefitted them a lot in the start and even now in LS/VS seat count
But there was a cost. BJP is steadily pushing out Sena from areas where it was dominant earlier.2 examples are Dahisar and Goregaon where BJP won in 2014 defeating Sena big leaders.BJP retained those seats in 2019 in the alliance seat sharing. And will win them even in BJP vs MVA
Even in Bhandup where Sena was the major party, new demographic changes due to high rises that have come up on LBS road have allowed BJP to win 2 corporators there unthinkable some time ago). Same thing is happening in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel and many other places in MMR
Read 5 tweets
Mandar Manmohan Sawant Profile picture
24 Oct
My two cents on the story of Geeta Jain @connectGEETA joining Sena. She was a BJP rebel who fought n won Mira Bhayander seat in 2019.
She got the sympathy of BJP voters due to her I'll treatment by unpopular sitting BJP MLA and candidate Narendra Mehta
If Jain is now joining Sena then these are some factors,
1. Short term gains, funds for ger constituency and one more reason could be her husband is a builder.
2. She feels this MCA govt is here to stay for atleast two more years. So why waste the post in opposition
3. She thinks she could win in the next election on a Sena ticket, but which seems difficult to me given the demography.
4. Sena has burnt a lot of bridges with non Marathi voters (and even a lot of Marathi voters) due to SSR and Kangana case.Could be attempt by Penguin to expand
Read 6 tweets

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