Look at how fresh @PawarSpeaks saheb is looking nowadays. The lure of power makes people young. Pawar kaka is trying one last attempt at being PM.
First objective is to get Gandhis give up claim to throne for 2024 and support a third front consensus candidate
Will be hard but dont rule out Pawar trying to get secular establishment to put pressure on Gandhis to relent. Today Praful Patel and Sanjay Raut are talking about it. Tomorrow someone like a Ramchandra Guha may talk about it.
Barkha Dutt and Shekar Gupta like fixers may start writing pieces about it. Actually it is the only way 2024 will not be an one sided election if Modi keeps performing well. Combined opposition may be only hope to keep below 272 though it is not likely.
Also in current situation, all top third front contenders are discredited. Nitish Kumar is no longer acceptable. Mamata is working hard to save her CM post, forget PM post. Akhilesh and Mayawati missed the bus when their alliance failed in the 2019 LS polls.
Stalin is not interested in ruling Delhi. He was like Prince Charles waiting on the sidelines forever.
YS Jagan is too young to be considered for the PM post. While Naveen Patnaik is considered too close to the BJP. Finally Kejriwal is a pariah even to the third front leaders
So only Pawar has some credit to his name as the sasta chanakya who kept BJP out of power in Maharashtra. Pawar hopes that situation forces more powerful regional satraps to accept him as the consensus PM candidate in the post poll scenario
Part 2 - Pawar hopes that Modi screws up in his implementation of welfare schemes. Not likely to happen but a flurry of protests will be held to keep Modi govt busy quelling fires. A third front getting just enough seats and aided outside support from Congress to cross the line
Maybe wishful thinking by Pawar as Modi is going strong. Hence the fear of Pawar and other satraps that the BJP will dethrone Mamata in WB. This gives BJP 30-35 LS seats in 2024. Combined with 60 plus seats of UP, majority seats to NDA in Bihar (BJP 15-20) Modi is unstoppable
Pawar's chances of being PM would evaporate for ever if Modi wins 2024.
Well this is my gut feeling but Pawar's activities in last few days and interest in WB elections, give enough reasons to suspect his motives.
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BJP has potential to win one more seat in Dahisar (Ward 1) where Ram Yadav of BJP had revolted and his wife had fought as an independent (reserved for women) and she came number 2. BJP official candidate stood 4th. Now Ram Yadav is back in BJP.
Bhau rightly points out that the appointment of trade union leader Bhai Jagtap as Mumbai Congress chief is a good move as he is an ambitious leader, unlike the earlier chiefs.
Cong which used to get anti Sena vote has lost it to the BJP in 2017 in Mumbai, as BJP is oppn to Sena
Bhai Jagtap is talking of Cong fighting on its own in BMC. There could be three reasons why he is talking like that, 1. Congress has lost strength in Mumbai. From 70 odd wards won in 2007 to 50 odd in 2012 and finally 30 odd in 2017, it has been a downward graph.
MVA govt n Uddhav opposed Modi's pet project bullet train despite knowing that Mumbai - Ahmedabad is just the first stage of Mumbai - Ahmedabad - Delhi route.
Then u unwisely move the metro yard from best location Aarey to unwieldy Kanjur marg knowing litigation
Centre has always been claiming the land through salt department. It is not a new stand after 2019. But still CM did this only coz his son wanted it this way.
Now when courts have stopped the work, and no other solution seems possible Uddhav is talking of reconciliation on this.
They hope to strike a bargain on the bullet train project and Kanjur marg metro yard. Knowing Modi this does not seem possible. But MVA is still trying by putting name of Pawar into this.
Pawar himself may be using this opportunity to talk to Modi on other issues as well
Most likely scenario in municipal elections in Mumbai. Sena fighting 130 odd and Congress less than 100 might be unacceptable to both. So seat adjustment in polls and post poll alliance might be the game
In mixed population ward, if BJP candidate was a Gujarati or Hindi bhashik; Congress would field a similar candidate to cause vote division. This would enable the Sena candidate dependent on Marathi votes to scrape through.
Plus Sena and Congress would make deals on wards. For example Waikar of Sena and Naseem Khan of Congress would make a deal to leave Jogeshwari wards to Sena and Chandivali/Powai wards to Congress.
Sena would not mobilize voters where alliance partner BJP would fight
Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.
So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n
Let us blame Sena of giving poor governance and being stupid in trying to get open vendetta against those opposing it. They never had the brains. But you cannot fault them for self preservation.
Alliance with BJP benefitted them a lot in the start and even now in LS/VS seat count
But there was a cost. BJP is steadily pushing out Sena from areas where it was dominant earlier.2 examples are Dahisar and Goregaon where BJP won in 2014 defeating Sena big leaders.BJP retained those seats in 2019 in the alliance seat sharing. And will win them even in BJP vs MVA
Even in Bhandup where Sena was the major party, new demographic changes due to high rises that have come up on LBS road have allowed BJP to win 2 corporators there unthinkable some time ago). Same thing is happening in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Panvel and many other places in MMR