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Aaron Derfel

27 Dec, 9 tweets, 5 min read

1) As Quebecers await word on whether a more contagious variant of the #coronavirus is circulating in the province, it’s worth reviewing the latest provincial data on workplace outbreaks, with cases surging in the manufacturing industry as well as in retail and big box stores.

2) The number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in the province soared from 272 on Dec. 12 to 699 on Dec. 19 — a truly dramatic increase that underscores the contagiousness of the #coronavirus. Please see the latest chart below by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

3) What stands out is the sheer number of #COVID19 clusters in Quebec manufacturing, including in food processing as well as in factories involved in a wide range of products. A total of 1,336 workers in manufacturing contracted the #coronavirus out of 187 outbreaks.

4) The next hard-hit sector is retail, with 151 outbreaks. These businesses include grocery stores, pharmacies, and auto-body shops, among others. Nearly 600 workers have contracted #COVID19 in these businesses. Closing some for two weeks will no doubt cut viral transmission.

5) What’s also noteworthy is that every workplace sector in Quebec has been hit by the #coronavirus, despite all the precautions that have been taken. These stats are a call for Quebecers to exercise much greater vigilance until most people can be vaccinated against #COVID19.

6) Which brings us to the news by the Ontario government Saturday confirming the first two cases of the #COVID19 “UK variant” in that province. Given that Quebec and Ontario are neighbors, the question arises as to whether the strain might also be circulating here as well.

7) Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health, emphasized in a statement “there is no evidence that (the variant) is more likely to cause severe illness” or that the “Health-Canada-approved vaccines will be any less effective against the new variant.”

8) For the past two days, Quebec hasn't published its daily #COVID updates. We’ll have to wait until Sunday morning to find out whether the number of new cases has continued to climb. On Thursday, the figure was 2,349 infections, the highest daily total recorded in the #pandemic.

9) Quebecers will also have to wait for official confirmation that the variant, known as B.1.1.7 or VUI202012/01, is, in fact, circulating here. At the very least, though, the news out of Ontario should jolt Quebecers into exercising even more caution. End of thread. Stay safe.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Dec

1) Montreal on Sunday posted a record 943 #COVID19 cases in the #pandemic. That’s up from just 200 cases on Nov. 19. In this thread, I will focus on the contagiousness of the #coronavirus and whether Quebec might have the new variant discovered in the United Kingdom.

2) The city’s rolling seven-day average has reached nearly 39 cases per 100,000 population. But what’s also worth noting is that the whole province is now at a rate of 26.24 cases per 100,000, well above Harvard University’s threshold of 25 to impose stay-at-home orders.

3) In fact, Quebec has now posted eight consecutive days of #COVID19 cases above the 2,000 mark. Remember when Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said in November that he hoped the province’s daily number would drop below 1,000?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Dec

1) Since the summer, two Quebec age groups have observed marked shifts in their number of confirmed #COVID19 cases: children in daycares and elementary schools, as well as high school students. In this thread, I will assess what this means for the return to school on Jan. 11.

2) First, let me concentrate on the demographic that public-health officials have often talked about during the second wave: the 20-to-29 age cohort. Officials in Quebec have often attributed the rise in transmission to this age group. But is this truly correct?

3) On July 28, the 20-to-29 group represented 13.8% of cumulative #COVID19 cases. By Dec. 24, the group’s share of total cases rose to 15.4%. There is no doubt this demographic has driven community transmission, but the facts show a more dramatic shift among younger age cohorts.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Dec

1) Quebec administered nearly twice the number of #COVID19 vaccines as new infections on Thursday, raising hopes that the second wave will eventually be conquered. But for now, though, cases are skyrocketing in three Montreal health districts.

2) Although cases have been surging in some parts of Montreal for days now, on Thursday three health districts posted more than 100 #COVID19 cases each for the first time in the second wave. Does this suggest this wave has still yet to peak? Please take a look at the chart below.

3) In total, Montreal counted 892 #COVID19 cases Thursday, two days after posting 893. The city’s seven-day rolling average has jumped to 36.83 infections per 100,000 residents. Experts at Harvard University have recommended a total lockdown at a rate of 25 per 100,000.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Dec

1) Although authorities have begun giving #COVID19 shots to hundreds of people in regions outside Quebec City and Montreal, the second wave intensified Wednesday, outpacing the vaccination effort. In this thread, I will focus on the immense challenges ahead.

2) Aside the from #pandemic itself, the biggest challenge is shoring up Quebec’s health-care system, which is on the verge of collapse. The province reported the highest number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the second wave Wednesday, 1,067, up by a dozen since the day before.

@mtlgazette

3) What’s more, an outbreak has forced the Montreal Neurological Hospital to close its intensive care unit, according to the @mtlgazette. And CTV News is reporting that adult patients are being treated at the Montreal Children’s Hospital to free up beds for those with #COVID19.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

23 Dec

1) Montreal posted a record single-day increase of nearly 900 #COVID19 cases Tuesday amid a near-doubling of outbreaks in the past two weeks. In this thread, I will examine the worsening situation in the metropolis.

2) On Dec. 8, Montreal recorded 279 #COVID19 clusters. By Tuesday, the number jumped to 478, with the sharpest spikes observed in the workplace (up by 92), health-care institutions (51) and schools (31). This suggests the second wave has yet to peak in the second wave. See below.

3) Major #COVID19 outbreaks are flaring up across the city, as the large circles in the chart below show. Most of the major clusters are occurring in hospitals and nursing homes (the orange circles), followed by the workplace (the grey circles). Sadly, no area has been spared.

Read 11 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

22 Dec

1) Quebec posted 21 more #COVID19 outbreaks across the province Monday, raising the total number to 1,678, the highest to date in the #pandemic. In this short thread, I will assess what impact this trend could have on the government’s so-called holiday pause.

2) When Quebec first made public breakdowns of #COVID19 outbreaks on Nov. 5, the tally at the time was 1,406. In the more than six weeks since those first stats were released, the number of outbreaks in health-care institutions has more than doubled: from 186 to 387 Monday.

3) The #COVID19 spike in health-care institutions suggests hospitalizations may rise despite the closing of non-essential businesses for two weeks, with schoolchildren at home until Jan. 11. This is what the Institut national de sante publique (INSPQ) has to say on the subject:

Read 10 tweets

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