1) Montreal on Sunday posted a record 943 #COVID19 cases in the #pandemic. That’s up from just 200 cases on Nov. 19. In this thread, I will focus on the contagiousness of the #coronavirus and whether Quebec might have the new variant discovered in the United Kingdom. 
2) The city’s rolling seven-day average has reached nearly 39 cases per 100,000 population. But what’s also worth noting is that the whole province is now at a rate of 26.24 cases per 100,000, well above Harvard University’s threshold of 25 to impose stay-at-home orders.
3) In fact, Quebec has now posted eight consecutive days of #COVID19 cases above the 2,000 mark. Remember when Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said in November that he hoped the province’s daily number would drop below 1,000?
4) Question: is the doubling in #COVID19 cases in Quebec in a month despite public-health restrictions a reflection of the contagiousness of preexisting strains, or a sign the more contagious variant identified in four cases in Ontario and British Columbia may also be here?
5) If the answer is the former, authorities need to ask whether the current lockdown, ending on Jan. 11 in Quebec, is effective enough to curb community transmission. If the answer is the latter, authorities need to ask the same question.
6) Two experts to whom I spoke today (@DeNovo_Fatima and @MatthewOughton) each suggested the new variant may already be in Quebec. And Oughton recommended that elementary school children be required to wear face masks upon their return to class on Jan. 11.
7) Quebec has so far vaccinated 17,316 people, a number rising every day. But the vaccine requires a booster shot for full immunity, and it will take many more weeks, even months, for the campaign to be completed. In the meantime, the health system is under enormous pressure.
8) Government projections predict #COVID19 hospital capacity may be breached as soon as Jan. 12 in Montreal, amid an historic shortage of nurses. At the same time, the city’s hospital emergency rooms are grappling with the usual ER overcrowding for this time of the year.
9) On Sunday, the province crossed the threshold of 8,000 deaths in the #pandemic. Montreal, for its part, added another 30 fatalities, likely reflecting some from previous days. Please take a look at the second blue wave that has yet to peak in the chart below.
10) The upshot is that things will likely get worse before they get better. With the possibility of a more contagious strain circulating, Quebecers must stay more vigilant than ever. And authorities need to consider more public-health measures. End of thread. Stay safe, everyone.
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