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Aaron Derfel

29 Dec, 10 tweets, 6 min read

1) Outbreaks of #COVID19 were flaring up Monday in five seniors’ residences and one long-term care centre as the #pandemic intensified both in Montreal and across the province. In this thread, I will examine the latest developments.

2) In the most dramatic example, the Masion familiale de Coaticook in the Estrie reported 36 #COVID19 cases in the past 24 hours, as the chart below makes clear. In the next serious example, a Chartwell seniors’ residence in the Montérégie posted 28 infections since Sunday.

3) Across the province, the Quebec Health Ministry confirmed an increase of 16 #COVID19 outbreaks since Dec. 24, including 17 more in health-care institutions. What’s odd is the spike of 17 clusters in schools even though they’ve been closed for more than a week. See below.

4) At present, there are 20,803 active #COVID19 cases in the province, up by 1,045 since last Thursday. What’s more, with Quebec posting an average of more than 2,200 cases a day this past week, the province is set to cross the threshold of 200,000 cases by Thursday.

5) Hospitalizations are also rising, reaching 1,224, a record in the second wave. ICU stays also set a record in the second wave: 150. Montreal hospitals are bracing for waves of #COVID19 patients in a week or two. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

6) Meanwhile, Montreal posted a record 946 #COVID19 cases Monday. The city’s seven-day average has climbed to 40.64 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s 15 cases above the rate set by Harvard University’s public health experts to recommend stay-at-home orders. See the chart below.

7) At the neighborhood level, #COVID19 is erupting again in Montreal’s central health district, which includes densely populated Côte-des-Neiges, downtown metro and Parc Extension. But as you can glimpse from the chart below, the #coronavirus is surging everywhere in the city.

8) And Montreal added eight #COVID19 fatalities Monday to a death toll that has reached 3,826. For the sake of comparison, Paris added four deaths Monday to its death toll of 2,649. Please see the blue wave in the Montreal chart below.

9) The big mystery is why Quebec has gone from daily #COVID19 cases in the 1,700-range on Dec. 17 to the 2,200-range 11 days later. Students have been home since Dec. 17, yet cases have risen nonetheless. Why is that? That’s a question one top health manager I spoke to is asking.

10) We may find out the answer to that question on Tuesday, when Health Minister Christian Dubé addresses reporters again. Perhaps he’ll have some news on whether Quebec has, in fact, the more transmissible #COVID19 strain that has been detected in Ontario and B.C. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Dec

1) At the current rate Quebec is vaccinating against #COVID19, it could take up to 8,522 days to achieve collective immunity against the #coronavirus in the province. In this thread, I will explain why the vaccine rollout will be a lot more complicated than some may have hoped.

2) I am basing the above calculations on comments that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious-diseases expert in the U.S., made to the New York Times on Dec. 24, as well as an interview I conducted with Dr. Philippe De Wals, a member of the Comité sur l’immunisation du Québec.

3) Dr. Fauci had this to say: “I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 per cent (of the U.S. population vaccinated). But I'm not going to say 90%." In another interview, Fauci suggested 80% to achieve herd immunity. Let’s go with that figure and apply it to Quebec.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Dec

1) Montreal on Sunday posted a record 943 #COVID19 cases in the #pandemic. That’s up from just 200 cases on Nov. 19. In this thread, I will focus on the contagiousness of the #coronavirus and whether Quebec might have the new variant discovered in the United Kingdom.

2) The city’s rolling seven-day average has reached nearly 39 cases per 100,000 population. But what’s also worth noting is that the whole province is now at a rate of 26.24 cases per 100,000, well above Harvard University’s threshold of 25 to impose stay-at-home orders.

3) In fact, Quebec has now posted eight consecutive days of #COVID19 cases above the 2,000 mark. Remember when Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said in November that he hoped the province’s daily number would drop below 1,000?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

27 Dec

1) As Quebecers await word on whether a more contagious variant of the #coronavirus is circulating in the province, it’s worth reviewing the latest provincial data on workplace outbreaks, with cases surging in the manufacturing industry as well as in retail and big box stores.

2) The number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in the province soared from 272 on Dec. 12 to 699 on Dec. 19 — a truly dramatic increase that underscores the contagiousness of the #coronavirus. Please see the latest chart below by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

3) What stands out is the sheer number of #COVID19 clusters in Quebec manufacturing, including in food processing as well as in factories involved in a wide range of products. A total of 1,336 workers in manufacturing contracted the #coronavirus out of 187 outbreaks.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

26 Dec

1) Since the summer, two Quebec age groups have observed marked shifts in their number of confirmed #COVID19 cases: children in daycares and elementary schools, as well as high school students. In this thread, I will assess what this means for the return to school on Jan. 11.

2) First, let me concentrate on the demographic that public-health officials have often talked about during the second wave: the 20-to-29 age cohort. Officials in Quebec have often attributed the rise in transmission to this age group. But is this truly correct?

3) On July 28, the 20-to-29 group represented 13.8% of cumulative #COVID19 cases. By Dec. 24, the group’s share of total cases rose to 15.4%. There is no doubt this demographic has driven community transmission, but the facts show a more dramatic shift among younger age cohorts.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

25 Dec

1) Quebec administered nearly twice the number of #COVID19 vaccines as new infections on Thursday, raising hopes that the second wave will eventually be conquered. But for now, though, cases are skyrocketing in three Montreal health districts.

2) Although cases have been surging in some parts of Montreal for days now, on Thursday three health districts posted more than 100 #COVID19 cases each for the first time in the second wave. Does this suggest this wave has still yet to peak? Please take a look at the chart below.

3) In total, Montreal counted 892 #COVID19 cases Thursday, two days after posting 893. The city’s seven-day rolling average has jumped to 36.83 infections per 100,000 residents. Experts at Harvard University have recommended a total lockdown at a rate of 25 per 100,000.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

24 Dec

1) Although authorities have begun giving #COVID19 shots to hundreds of people in regions outside Quebec City and Montreal, the second wave intensified Wednesday, outpacing the vaccination effort. In this thread, I will focus on the immense challenges ahead.

2) Aside the from #pandemic itself, the biggest challenge is shoring up Quebec’s health-care system, which is on the verge of collapse. The province reported the highest number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the second wave Wednesday, 1,067, up by a dozen since the day before.

@mtlgazette

3) What’s more, an outbreak has forced the Montreal Neurological Hospital to close its intensive care unit, according to the @mtlgazette. And CTV News is reporting that adult patients are being treated at the Montreal Children’s Hospital to free up beds for those with #COVID19.

Read 11 tweets

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