THREAD: Some information on the spread of the new Covid variant across England from @ONS infection survey - ONLY goes up to 18th December. We urgently need last week's data. BUT up to 18th Dec this is where we were:
The following plots show the proportion of the ONS sample who tested positive for Covid broken down by whether it was "normal" Covid (blue) or the new variant (red).
In London, SE and East of England the new variant was a small proportion of overall infections until end Nov, when it started taking off. Its rapid spread and dominance in this corner of England is pretty evident..
In Midlands so far it is not dominating - in fact to 18 Dec it was shrinking slightly. This is really excellent news - has it stayed that way? Govt dashboard says cases rising in Midlands. But in SW, variant increasing its share. Latest SW case data shows Covid surging :-(
In the North a different picture again. Stead decline in NW, but mainly in "normal Covid". NE and Yorks again decline mainly in normal covid -most recent days sees small increase in variant share too.
Are these areas going to go same way as South? Hope not but Xmas was a big risk. Cases rising in all areas to 22nd Dec (Gov dashboard & KCL covid symptom tracker app) - at very least giving new variant chance to spread. Stay tuned for the next update (no idea when it will come!).
And finally thank you v much to @cfinnecy for pointing this data to me!! /END
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THREAD: Where are we with Covid-19 in England now that the new tiers have started?
TLDR: nowhere good and things are quite scary. 1/13
Firstly, overall cases are rising sharply. Over 40,000 people tested on 21st Dec, tested positive - just in *England*. (this is "specimen date", not "reporting date"). 2/13
Looking at it regionally, the SE is still the epicentre of new cases. London cases per 100K people now *much* higher than anywhere in the North in Oct/Nov.
BUT everywhere is going up. This is *not* just a Southern problem. 3/13
TINY THREAD: Tier 4, potential Tier 4, Covid Spread in two plots.
Takeaway - Tier 4 is surrounded by Tier 2 areas - those Tier 2 areas are rising much faster than Tier 2 areas further away from Tier 4. Govt must act now. 1/4
Firstly, just looking at weekly cases per 100,000 people within each of the (current) tiers you can see that Tier 4 dipped much less in lockdown, started rising just before and is accelerating faster than the NE and NW ever did. Only Tier 3 is sort of stable. 2/4
Secondly, if we look at Tier 2 areas in regions near Tier 4 (East, SE, E Mid) they are now *also* rising much faster than Tier 2 areas in regions that are further away (NW, NE, Yorks, SW, W Mids). 3/4
CHRISTMAS THREAD: In today's @independentsage briefing @SusanMichie took us through this incredibly helpful 10-point plan from SAGE Spi-B, which she co-wrote. Here are the key points!! 1/5
The safest way to meet is online or outdoors... this remains the most important principle. 2/5
Whether you decide to meet inside, outside or not at all, every household should make a plan together - so that everyone knows what is happening and to prevent misunderstandings, hurt feelings, arguments... 3/5
Firstly, cases are continuing to come down in Scotland, NI and England. This is good. Welsh cases have gone up a bit over last 2 weeks tho, a few weeks after their firebreak ended, since when they've had fewest restrictions in UK.
Note that...
...Some of increase is cos Wales is testing more (GOOD) but some is more transmission, as seen in recent (small) increase in positivity rates from case data *and* ONS infection survey.
Lots of discussion over fairness of tier allocation and "balance" between economy and lives.
Let's remember where we were a few months ago...
Over the summer we were average about 10 new cases / 100K people / week. Quarantine from foreign destinations was triggered if they were above 20/100K cases. The *lowest* area in mainland England right now is at 59/100K (Cornwall). Almost everywhere is over 100/100K.
The rule of 6 was brought in across England on 14th September. Manchester went into tough restrictons on 16th Sept with case rate of 100/100K. From September to November the govt was trying to "balance" the economy and lives - against scientific advice to lockdown.
THREAD: In this piece for @IanDunt 4 weeks ago, I wrote about the "relentless doubling" of Covid deaths in England & that any new measures would not prevent deaths over the coming 4 weeks because they would mostly be among people who already had Covid. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
Given that relentless doubling of deaths, I wrote "It's likely 2,000 people will die over the next two weeks and 4,000 the two weeks after that.". Sadly, it was even worse. 2,553 died in the two weeks to 1st Nov & 4,328 have died over the last 2 weeks... (coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths)
A Sept 21st circuit break as recommended by SAGE could have prevented many of those deaths. I am v glad we started lockdown on 5th November but it was NOT soon enough to help the thousands who will die over the next 2 weeks. It also won't be as effective after missing half term.