"Although there is no information that infections with these strains are more severe, due to increased transmissibility the impact of #COVID19 disease in terms of hospitalisations and deaths is assessed as high."

@ECDC_EU risk assessment of new variants:
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
@ECDC_EU "The probability of increased circulation of any SARS-CoV-2 strains and this placing greater pressure on health systems in the coming weeks is considered to be high due to the festive season and, higher still, in countries where the new variants are established."
@ECDC_EU "The UK has demonstrated that their sequencing programme is able to detect emerging variants. Ideally, Member States should aim for a similar timeliness and fraction of samples sequenced, although this will depend on the availability of resources."
@ECDC_EU The document is well worth a read if you are looking for a one-stop read with all the information on what we currently know about spread etc. of these variants with some good background info on sequencing capacity etc. in Europe.
@ECDC_EU ECDC also confirms that in some ways we are back to an early 2020 scenario:
"For countries that have not already confirmed high levels of community transmission of a variant of concern, efforts to delay the spread should mirror those made during the earlier stage of the pandemic”

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More from @kakape

29 Dec
Finally read the new update on UK variant B.1.1.7, posted yesterday, which includes a study suggesting the variant is no more (or less) severe than prior virus variants.
Just a very brief thread (or read the entire document here:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
Researchers took 1769 cases of people infected with the new variant and then looked for 1769 cases of people with “normal” virus to compare them to. They chose these so that median age and proporion of females was the same. That’s why it’s called a “matched cohort study”
They then compared hospitalizations for the two groups:
Overall 42 people were hopsitalized,
16 with the variant
26 with wild-type
The difference between the two was not significant.
Read 10 tweets
28 Dec
"This is a moment for all of us to reflect on the toll the pandemic has taken, the progress we have made, the lessons we have learned and what we need to do in the year ahead to end this pandemic”, says @DrTedros in last @WHO #covid19 presser of the year.
@DrTedros @WHO "Science is at the core of everything we do and it has advanced at a blistering speed this year”, says @drtedros.
@DrTedros @WHO "There will be setbacks and new challenges in the year ahead”, says @DrTedros. "For example, new variants of #COVID19 and helping people who are tired of the pandemic continue to combat it."
Read 21 tweets
26 Dec
For all those still arguing that “only" around 0,1% of people infected with #covid19 die:
This is nonsense!
The US has around 330 million people and it has now recorded more than 330,000 deaths.
That means 0,1% of the *entire population* has died. And #sarscov2 still spreading.
UK:
about 66 million people
more than 69,000 deaths from #covid19

France: about 67 million people
more than 62,000 deaths

Mexico:
about 126 million population
more than 121,000 deaths

Even worse:
Belgium:
11,5 million population
more than 19,000 deaths
We had a lot of good data already showing that the IFR of #covid19 is much higher than 0,1%.

Now we have a lot of places where around 0,1% of the entire population have died and the virus is still spreading.

So anyone still telling this lie, is deliberately ignoring reality.
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec
What do we know about the new #SARSCoV2 variants? How worried should we be? What does it mean?
I promised to summarize the main points from my reporting over the last few days.
So here is my latest story and a thread (and then it’s Christmas)
sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/u…
First: I’ve said “We don’t know yet” a lot over the last few days and we still don’t know most of what we want to know about these variants. Getting good answers takes times. Science takes time. But we are learning a lot fast and we know a lot more today than three days ago.
The UK variant:
I explained how B.1.1.7 caught scientists’ attention in my first story on this and why they were worried (sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/m…).
That worry has only increased. There is now more data available and it points to this variant really being more transmissible.
Read 20 tweets
22 Dec
Some good news (and incredibly fast work) on one of the mutations scientists are worried about: N501Y.
In these lab experiments serum from recovered #covid19 patients was just as good at neutralizing virus with the mutation as without it.
This does not say anything about whether the mutation could make the virus more transmissible but it suggest the mutation alone at least does not mean the virus can widely infect people again.
Of course, both UK and SA variant have several additional mutations...
I will let other people figure out how to cite a tweet in a scientific publication ;)
Read 5 tweets
21 Dec
It’s becoming clearer that one main hypothesis that scientists are looking at with B.1.1.7 is whether its advantage could be that it is better at infecting children. There are a TON of caveats, but this is one possibility that is being explored.
The idea is very simple: #SARSCoV2 appears to be a bit worse at infecting children than adults. If the mutations in B.1.1.7 allow this variant to bind more tightly to the ACE2 receptor on human cells that could essentially make it as good at infecting children as adults.
Like I said a TON of caveats. Maybe most importantly: the UK had a lockdown while schools were kept open, so you would expect the epidemic to shift more to children anyway and that of course can make it look like there is something going on with this variant in children.
Read 4 tweets

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