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29 Dec 20, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Heartbreaking - two reports. mol.im/a/9096257
NHS could face 'horrendous choices' over coronavirus care
theguardian.com/world/2020/dec…
Decisions & actions matter, in summer, Sept,Nov, early Dec. Data is in rear view mirror,hospitalisations,severe illness & tragic deaths lag behind community transmission & cases. Data,messages & messengers questioned/not believed in Sept, decisions delayed, these are consequences
Events are not inevitable. We are not passive observers. Bad outcomes in public health can be prevented through good decisions & timely actions implemented.

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More from @JeremyFarrar

Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Finland detects UK & SA variants. As immune pressure on virus grows, evolution will speed up & any variants that escape that immunity will have selective advantage. Both variants huge worry, variant described SA, may already evade mAbs, variant UK more transmissible
We have to reduce transmission through physical distancing, public health measure, masks, handwashing, behaviour, infection control, plus T-T-I, treatments & vaccines. And these tools available globally.
theguardian.com/world/live/202…
Making Tests,Treatments,Vaccines available globally is a moral imperative. It is a scientific imperative.If not variants that may escape immune control via infection/vaccination that arise in one part world will reverberate everywhere. Truly no one is safe until we are all safe
Read 8 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
28 Nov 20
Agree with most of this article “issue with Covid19 is that when you should act, you appear mad & when you have to act, it is too late, as fatalities are sky-high & gross damage has already been done to healthcare system” hospitalisations and deaths spectator.co.uk/article/if-tie…
“This is because of the in-built delays in infections leading to hospitalisations and deaths.”
Statement I don’t agree with is “This makes Covid a guessing game: working out how today’s infections translate into tomorrow’s hospitalisations & deaths”. It’s not a guessing game. Mid-predictions based on data & lessons Feb/March made impact autumn/winter entirely predictable
Read 7 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
17 Nov 20
Such pleasure join ⁦@louiseckenny⁩ ⁦@LivUni⁩ Prof Dame Janet Beer & colleagues this evening & a great title for series “Science & Society”. Thank you invitation Q&A. Hope did not offend but think it will by points difference end of season ⁦⁦⁦⁦@Everton⁩
Quick summary - A: Thoughts on COVID & 2020. Drivers epidemics: Ecological & environment change, changes human:animal interface, urbanisation, travel & trade, neglect of public health, undermining of institutions & geopolitics. All features which will define 21stC.
B: Multiple warnings - Nipah, SARS-1, H5N1, H1N1, Zika, MERS, Ebola, Dengue, Chik, & many others. Epidemics becoming more frequent and more complex. Epidemics invariably have an inequitable impact, amplify & increase existing fault lines in societies.
Read 14 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
1 Nov 20
"This has been such a tough year already. Tough beyond belief for millions across the country & across the world. My experience from other virus outbreaks is that the second wave is always harder." @wellcometrust statements #COVID19 since 10 January 2020
wellcome.org/press-release/…
This isn’t decision any government would want to make. The sooner we act, sooner we start to recover. A very difficult few weeks now & no one can underestimate toll on people. But consequences of sticking with the current insufficient restrictions would have been much worse.
"I’d like nothing more than to have a normal family Christmas. If we can steel ourselves now for a few weeks of greater restrictions, there’s a chance we could ease up a little between Xmas-NY. But if we’d let it continue to multiply, we’d be in a terrible situation in December.
Read 12 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
30 Oct 20
There is lots of high-quality data on COVID-19, but we haven’t always done a good job of explaining what it really means, or put the data in context of a fast moving dynamic epidemic, when days matter. So I am going to have a go.
The @ONS have provided outstanding data & I'm proud @wellcometrust are a partner along with @OfficialUoM, @UniofOxford, @PHE_uk - @Join_ZOE, Pillars 1-4, Test-Trace-Isolate, @ISARIC1 CO-Cin, Public Health in Scotland, NI, Wales, #NHS, COG-UK, in Schools, Care Homes & many more
But looking at figures released today is like looking back in a rear-view mirror. When look at data on number of deaths today, we're seeing how prevalent infections were & state of the epidemic up or more than a mth ago.The data doesn't show you the state of the epidemic today
Read 14 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
27 Oct 20
Honoured to join ⁦@WorldHealthSmt⁩ final panel with ⁦@DrTedros⁩ ⁦@IlonaKickbusch⁩ ⁦@UNITAID⁩ ⁦@GlobalFund⁩ ⁦@WorldBank⁩ ⁦@UNICEF⁩ ⁦@wellcometrust⁩ - Partnerships together & with many others to make a difference now and in future
Quick summary of comments - 1) Research is crucial, but not on its own without working with partners to make sure the benefits are equitably available & accessible.
2)Recent years some countries have taken more insular approach. The world has stared into the abyss of nationalism. COVID like all great challenges of 21stC has shown how dangerous that can be. Pandemics like global heating, access water, inequality etc do not respect borders.
Read 10 tweets

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