1/10 My 10 charts on energy, transport, emissions, e-commerce, and sustainable finance to put paid to 2020 (and look ahead to 2021).
No. 1: Energy became the smallest component of S&P500 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/10 Renewable power gen is the cheapest new source of electrons almost anywhere and (related to above) does so with a higher return on equity than most oil supermajors bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
3/10 Electric vehicles have already vaporized a million barrels per day of oil demand. Most of that demand erosion isn't from cars, or even buses - it's from 2- and 3-wheelers. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
4/10 Electric vehicle sales are outperforming - not just relative to (dismal) passenger vehicle sales in general, but in absolute terms. Sales will be up year-on-year. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
6/10 CO2 emissions from fuels burned for power, transportation, industry and building-related applications probably peaked in 2019. The future for power looks like 11-12% each coal and gas, and 20%+ each for solar and wind. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
7/10 U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped 9.2% this year. Biggest drop on record, back to 1982 levels when the economy was 40% of today's size. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
8/10 For the first time in at least 60 years, U.S. consumers spent more on electricity than on gasoline and diesel. Thanks, pandemic + working from home + reduced driving. Still, it's a glimpse of what an EV-filled future could be. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
9/10 E-commerce as a % of total sales expanded as much in six months as it once did in seven years. I don't think it has to be a complete climate disaster. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
10/10 We've passed $1T in green bonds. Not bad progress, but more work to be done. All respect to Drizzy and the late T. Boone Pickens, but the first trillion is the hardest.
That's almost it for 2020. See you in 2021. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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The U.S. and U.K. moved this week to make climate-related financial risks the norm. All businesses everywhere should get ready to do the same.
THREAD: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
1/ In its latest Financial Stability Report, the @federalreserve specifically calls out climate change as a near-term risk to the financial system. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Climate change, it concludes, “increases the likelihood of dislocations and disruptions in the economy” and “is likely to increase financial shocks and financial system vulnerabilities that could further amplify these shocks.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It's here - @BloombergNEF's 2020 New Energy Outlook. Peak energy emissions, peak oil demand, peak coal demand, 56% wind and solar power in 2050, hydrogen pathways, and $78-130 trillion (with a T) in investment 2020-50. Highlights: about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…#BNEFNEO THREAD:
1/ @BloombergNEF#BNEFNEO 2020: In our core Economic Transition Scenario, global carbon emissions from energy use drop 8% in 2020 and now appear to have peaked in 2019. Covid subtracted 2.5 years of emissions' we're on track for 3.3 degrees of warming about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…
2/ @BloombergNEF#BNEFNEO 2020: Emissions from all transport peak in 2033, two years after the road segment, as a result of ongoing growth in aviation and shipping. Building emissions grows at 0.7% year-on-year from 9% of emissions in 2019 to 14% in 2050. about.bnef.com/new-energy-out…
2/ @FAO tracks production of 18 meats including camel, guinea fowl, and wild game, but only three are significant in global volume: beef, pork, and chicken; they're 302 of 340 million tons of annual production bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ Pork and chicken production are growing at a greater rate than beef production. Let's look at them in relative terms. The top three are remarkably steady for six decades (85 to 88% of total) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It was not until 1955 that the U.S. had more tractors than horses and mules working on farms. A brief thread (from this awesome paper) on what mechanization did for U.S. agriculture. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
The tractor:
Replaced about 23 million draft animals, and expanded the draft-power on farms more than four-fold. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
The tractor:
Increased the effective cropland base by 79 million acres. This represented an increase of about 30%and was equal to 2/3 of the total cropland harvested in 1920 in the territory of the area of the Louisiana Purchase. nber.org/papers/w7947.p…
An India power challenge: how to get 400 megawatts of zero-carbon power to generate 80% of the time?
The answer: round-the-clock renewables, and batteries, and a few major changes in approach. It's another view of electricity's future, today. bloomberg.com/authors/AQDSs6… THREAD
India is the world’s biggest market for renewable energy auctions, in which wind and solar project developers compete to offer the lowest possible prices for zero-carbon power. In May, India added a twist: a call for “round-the-clock” renewable power. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The winning bid was higher than the going rates for wind and solar in previous auctions.
I've spent a month+ thinking on energy in an age of abundance, pandemic-induced or not. Today's math is different from the old math, be it in expected sector return on capital to structural readiness for negative prices. Hint: one sector comes out looking better-prepared.
1/ Oil majors tightening their belt - inevitable, given current market; not great for any energy source, given that the majors are considerable asset and corporate investors in clean energy bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ Integrated oil company returns on equity: Far from the heady days of the early 2000s, and trending back down again bloomberg.com/news/articles/…