Well, Happy New Year everyone. Many people did not survive 2020, if you're reading this, you did!
Congratulations!
One thing I am *extremely* grateful for from 2020 though is the incredible number of new friends I have made this past year, primarily through twitter
I started the year rarely using twitter and with maybe 100 or so followers. I ended it with more than 3000, many of whom are far smarter, more experienced, and more qualified than I to talk about a pandemic, but apparently they found my contributions of interest.
For that, I am extremely flattered and thankful!
Some of them I'm now proud to call friends, despite the pandemic having prevented us from yet meeting in real life. Hopefully that will change for many of you before this spin around the sun is complete.
Thank you to all I've engaged with, whether in disagreement or agreement. In many ways, those who disagree have been of more value. You've forced me to think, to understand my own biases, and acknowledge my weaknesses and errors. I hope I've done the same for you! 😁
2021 is a year where I think we can truly celebrate science. *Science has mattered* and most people have listened. The speed of Covid-19 vaccine development has been nothing short of stunning, and scientists are being recognized as heroes in a way long reserved for sports stars.
I only hope that this new found respect (so few headlines about "boffins" in 2020!) can transfer into realms outside of epidemiology and virology, in particular in to climate science. The scientists have been screaming warnings for decades, let's all start listening.
Let's not forgot that in 2020 millions of people saved the lives of of countless people they don't know - simply by changing their behaviour. We need to continue that lesson. By changing our behaviour, individually, we can turn around the climate crisis.
In 2003 - 18 years ago! - the World Health Organization pointed out that *just getting people to do what we (and usually they too!) already know they should already be doing* will have far more effect on public health than any medical breakthrough.
But as leadership expert @JohnCMaxwell has pointed out
"The greatest gap in life is the gap between the knowing and the doing"
So while in 2020 most of you started following me because of my statistics and weird spaghetti graphs, in 2021 I hope to spend a bit more time on what's been my real passion - behaviour change.
So I'll be tweeting some more about that field, and helping us all - not least me - close that gap, the gap between the knowing and the doing.
2020 showed we *can* change, and we can make a difference to ourselves and others.
Let's keep it going!
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In today's Folkhälsomyndigheten preference conference, when Tegnell was asked why Sweden differs so much from our neighbours, he said it was our neighbours that were the outliers, Sweden was similar to the rest of Europe.
Here's how Sweden looks like compared to the EU average.
When @AnneliMegnerArn pointed out that Sweden was actually one of the worst in Europe, he then said it was because we were in a different phase to the other countries, having started wave 2 later.
In reality, we're far higher than the *peak* EU average of cases.
So Tegnell's excuse changed from "we're like the rest of Europe, not the Nordics" to "we're not like the rest of Europe" within the space of about 90 seconds.
When any excuse will do, any excuse will do - and this has been constant over the last 10 months.
Non-Swedish followers are probably not aware, but this week in a "cultural" piece, Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, when asked what the "Year's pandemic" was, answered "hobby epidemiologists".
So let's talk about Anders Tegnell and epidemiology.
Epidemiology is the study of patterns of disease (and health) in a society. While today we're all discussing it re a virus, it applies also to studies of things like alcohol abuse, obesity etc, not just communicable diseases.
What is the #1 field of skill and knowledge needed in epidemiology?
In my opinion, statistics. Now, statistics alone is not enough, but it is *necessary* to have a reasonably good handle on statistics to understand (or do) epidemiology.
A little perspective for all the "it's just old people" brigade.
I turn 52 in exactly a month. Prior to #longcovid I was the healthiest I've been in my life, and the fittest since I was a teen - and with zero health issues.
I've just checked the Swedish data from my age group -
In Sweden, for those aged 50-59 who have tested positive for Sars-CoV-2, 1 in 40 have ended up in ICU and more than 1 in 200 have died.
This includes both men and women -
Men though, have ended up in ICU at more than double the rate of women, despite women having more +ve tests.
This means the odds of a 50-59 year old man who tests positive ending up in ICU are closer to 1 in 30 or even 1 in 20.
35 New #COVID19sverige deaths reported today, taking the Folkhälsomyndigheten total to 6057. The oldest change was +3 to October 29, four separate days (Nov 1,4,6,7) had 5 new deaths reported.
A clear uptick in the cumulative deaths curve is now apparent.
The rolling 7 day average is rapidly increasing, and the 10-14 day lag in reporting is clear in this graph, with each line representing the averages as presented each reporting day. The most recent data is the line that ends furthest to the right.
Once fully updated, this data will likely show we are average well over 10 deaths per day at the moment.
The Swedish Palliative Care Registry is reporting 74 Covid deaths so far in November, an increase of 42 since Friday.