Thread by @DavidSteadson

35 New #COVID19sverige deaths reported today, taking the Folkhälsomyndigheten total to 6057. The oldest change was +3 to October 29, four separate days (Nov 1,4,6,7) had 5 new deaths reported.

A clear uptick in the cumulative deaths curve is now apparent.

The rolling 7 day average is rapidly increasing, and the 10-14 day lag in reporting is clear in this graph, with each line representing the averages as presented each reporting day. The most recent data is the line that ends furthest to the right.

Once fully updated, this data will likely show we are average well over 10 deaths per day at the moment.

The Swedish Palliative Care Registry is reporting 74 Covid deaths so far in November, an increase of 42 since Friday.

Covid deaths reflect the spread of infection in Sweden about 2-3wks ago. Given lag, however, the data reflects infections ca 3-4 weeks ago or more.

This is the rolling 14 day average of cases per/100000 population. A month ago we were at 75, yesterday (incomplete) already at 450

Mortality is however heavily affected by who is infected, with risk increasing significantly from 0.4% at age 55 through to 15% at age 85.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Unfortunately, as we can see from this graph from Folkhälsomyndigheten's press conference today, the virus is now spreading rapidly in all age groups.

In Stockholm alone, more than 45 aged care homes are reporting one or more Covid infections amongst residence

https://twitter.com/pwolodarski/status/1326211582314110976?s=20

ICU utilisation is also predictably increasing rapidly, with 131 beds currently used by Covid patients.

I noted yesterday that ICU would be full in less than 2 weeks. 2 weeks ago Folkhälsomyndigheten pulled out their old "flatten the curve" graph.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1321895149849530369?s=20

Well today, they showed a modified version. They're still after flattening the curve, now it's just a bigger curve. That bigger dotted-line curve ... don't lose sight of what that means. It's seriously ill sick and dying people. It's thousands of exhausted health care workers.

I'm horrified to say this, and say it already now, in early November, but the data is now irrefutable, it has, in essence, already happened - we *will* pass the peaks of Spring before the end of the year.

What happens after that is still up to us.

So I issue a plea to *all* Swedes - ignore Anders Tegnell.

#stayathome as much as you possibly can, and please, please, please, everyone #WearAMask

#bytStrategiNu