Thread by @TedPetrou

@denisrancourt I believe the efficacy to be 0. It is trivially easy to pull off paper efficacy of >90%. Heres how done.

1. Have no one deliberately exposed to the virus
2. Only test those that report symptoms
3. Give a placebo (saline) shot with no side effects
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@denisrancourt 4. Fail to run a test group with no shot
5. Fail to run a test group with non-pharma intervention such as exercise, diet and vitamin D
6. Fail to run test group with on related immune boost
7. Partipants knew which group they were in based on the side effects.
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@denisrancourt 8. Many participants openly admitted in public online forums to getting antibody tests to determine which group they were in
9. Most likely everyone wanted the trial to succeed.
10. Knowing which group you were in, you could just not get tested if in the vaccine group
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@denisrancourt 11. There would have been enormous pressure to not get tested if in the vaccine group. No one would want to be the reason billions of people did not get a vaccine.
12. Prevalence was so low that every one positive test in the placebo group reduced efficacy by more than 1%
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@denisrancourt 13. 99.2% of the placebo group did not get covid
14. 99.95% did not get a severe case of covid
15. Prevalence of the disease was much higher during the trial than 0.8%.
16. Vaccine might only be optimized to pass a PCR test and not actually do anything about the disease
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@denisrancourt 17. They were given two shots to boost immune. Each person got two times to determine which group they were in.

I'd love to see independent attempts at replication, or better yet, deliberate exposure. IFR is 0 for healthy under 25.