T9M figures last 4 years. Yes it's a bit stagnant in the numbers and costs up / profit down a little etc but the COGs numbers are roughly consistent. You could imagine a jump in revenues flowing through quite well.
2018 was Oprah
Fair to guess lots of New Year gym sign-ups are postponed or never happen and more NY lose weight / get fit resolutions than usual find their way here instead?
Cashflow behaves roughly the same. More SBC, bit more capex.
Balance sheet not much changed
Overall, not an entirely dissimilar company to before
2021 is the first NY w/Covid, lots of fitness options are closed off, which produces an Oprah bump, that then flows well into the financials and subscriber numbers jump even more than usual?
Anyway, I don't know the company and I don't know what Iceberg has in mind (whatever it is, it'll be vastly better thought through than this - you should follow him) and this is all just a lazy first level thinking with the idea that there's a chance the stock might pop a bit.
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Very hairy: this company was going down the toilet even before covid; it's now a wreck - and even better, it's enormously exposed to Chinese solar. BK isn't off the cards and the upside may not even be that great. Chart is back to Jan 2017. Singulus from Germany #SNG.DE
It's a German maker of high end capital goods for solar, semi and life sciences: glass and wafer deposition / polishing, that kind of area.
Revenues in 9M20 YTD a third of an already bad 2019. Goes from breakeven to -€20M loss and even achieves a negative gross margin, quite the achievement.
I'll keep this brief, I think Magnachip $MX, for good reason, could finally be starting to rerate.
It's the RT below: foundry divestment - now it has hit the balance sheet. Today it's 0.6x EV/FY20 revenues and by 2023 their aim is 8% FCF. This is way too cheap.
You naturally assume they're a melting ice cube; they're not, they grow. They're reliably prolific in getting design wins and have plenty to look forward to, like the below.
It's still a cyclical end-market business but less so with the boom and bust of foundry gone. Now with the cash in the filings, it can screen cheap. The whole idea is simple: if they hit or even approach the targets, an IP led company doesn't trade at a fraction of revenues.
There's a thread by @Mitch198509 about $NFIN, a SPAC for a trade finance platform. It uses blockchain and at that point in the presentation I stopped. Forget it, of course.
But I read it again, then the proxy, then I put it in front of a trade finance lawyer. Could be something
Those numbers are projections I pulled from the proxy. Earn-outs on either share price X by certain dates, or 90% of the above EBITDA being achieved.
Doesn't need to get a $NCNO to $MKTX multiple to work from here but we can dream.
HY20: Revenue $24M / Ebitda: $17M / Net $14M
What they do in 1 tweet:
Platform for trade finance. TF is slow, paper-intensive, expensive and inaccessible for little fish: company says $1.5T unmet need with 60% of requests refused. Triterras (the biz NFIN is SPACing) brings KYC pre-qualified borrowers and lenders together.
Satisfyingly, 's 1996 annual report looks like the intro credits to Saved By The Bell.
It's also how far back I had to go to find when their R&D spending matches what 's is today: 24 years
$1,547 was AMD's 2019 R&D expense. I'm looking at this because I've made the mistake both here - in ignoring AMD at $5 - and elsewhere, of assuming that a tech incumbent's huge advantage in spend should necessarily provide some kind of moat.
Intel spends in a year what it takes AMD almost a decade to afford