1. Yes, Trump will claim to intend to target GOP senators up for reelection in '22 (like he did to Thune with Kristi Noem) if they don't join in @HawleyMO's sedition on Jan. 6, but the fact is, it's not clear whether Trump will be successful in ANY of those efforts & voting yes
2. to hedge off these threats will also create fissures & fractures for these incumbents among other elements of their party that could complicate their renominations. Indeed, what worries me the most about the potential for the country to slip into @anneapplebaum territory is
3. that what should be robust and intense push back from the party establishment against actually ending democracy- bc that's what Trump's request would do, if it was granted, is fairly muted. What we SHOULD be seeing from the mainstream of the party is threats to strip committee
4. assignments, chairs, privileges, even reelection funds, if anyone gets involved in this bullshit- in the House & the Senate, and the fact that you don't see it is more than a story of McConnell & McCarthy being afraid of Trump & his base. Its a story of receptivity, of the
5. level of receptivity the congressional and party leadership is dealing with both within the rank and file membership of the party and within its donor class, and THAT, my friends, is why you find me so concerned. That, and my decision to finally pull @anneapplebaum's book
6. Twilight of Democracy off the To Read pile.
We REALLY want to do what we can to encourage & grow resistance within the Rep Party itself to ripping up the Constitution. Symbolic or not, the things that they are doing MATTER and we are in a place, institutionally speaking,
7. similar to the lead up over the Civil War, where refusal to accept the results of the 1860 presidential election helped stumble the country into armed conflict. I think its a big mistake for McConnell to play with fire like this, he ought to be marginalizing Trump & the
8. election denialism, not embolding it further as we head into the final stretch and the actual transfer of power process. Trump has dark goals for his bullshit rally on the 6th too, his vision is for an angry rally, with people demanding their "rightful king" be reinstated into
9. power. The issue with Trump is that whether its intentional or not is doesn't matter, he won't conduct himself in a manner that reduces the threat of violence. Just the opposite- everything he says & does will make violence more likely. It's going to be an untenable situation.
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1. Much the Founders put into the Constitution to prevent Trump/deal w him was left unused by us.
Most notable/imp though was the Electoral College itself. If we'd been able to import the FFs to witness 2016, they'd have been yelling "use the EC to blackball his presidency!"
2. Literally, the process we're watching play out right now, the very process that Trump is trying to illegally subvert & corrupt to hold onto power, that process is the process the FFs put in place in case the public did something NUTS that elites needed to overrule. And you
3. don't get any more nuts than giving the prez to a guy like Donald Trump! A guy who could never pass your own govn't's classified clearance processes (hell, this dude couldn't pass many company's employment background processes). A guy who can't be trusted w classified info
1. Y'all I've got some cool guests/content coming for the @ElectionWsphr pods on The Cycle-On Substack. Morning of Tues the 5th I'll drop the pod w @JonathanMetzl about whether Dying for Whiteness might extend to dying for Trump (don't forget, paid subscribers will be invited to
2. a special Q & A live convo w Jonathan Metzl & I from 6pm-7pm as we anxiously await the results from the GA Senate runoffs!) Going to have @marceelias from the @DemocracyDocket come on & tell us the story of their frontline battle over the past year against the GOP's shameful
3. assault against democracy- which started bad. Republicans exploited the suspension of the Voting Rights Act to close polling locations, pass voter restrictions that wouldn't have survived DOJ review (well maybe Barr's DOJ!) and ending early voting days- anything, anywhere
2. with physician and sociologist @JonathanMetzl whose book Dying of Whiteness How the Politics of Racial Resentment is Killing America's Heartland presents several years of research to support his thesis that many white Americans are embracing white racial grievance politics (&
3. its accompanying policies) even when those policies make them poorer, less healthy, and even shortens their life spans. ANYTHING is better than that socialism stuff, after all. Metzl finds much of white voter obstince stems from the bostonreview.net/race/jonathan-…
Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.
All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet
There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White
Its educated versus non-educated
And its global
1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW
That's right! My @SubstackInc is finally live!!! I'd be deeply honored to have you subscribe in any capacity so that my content arrives right into your inbox!
2. It's the desire to hurt or maybe even kill your political opponent! Mason & Kalmoe discuss how partisan schadenfreude leads to a lethal mass partisanship while Webster discusses his new book on neg partisanship- American Rage stevenwwebster.com/7americanrage.…
1. Are you totally obsessed w the #GASenateRunOffs? Check out this amazing tool from @OldBullTV & @OpenModelProj that let's YOU take a deep, interactive dive into their survey data to see the impact of diff weights & turnout models so you can understand how polling data is VERY
2., dependent on the decisions made by survey researchers. Everything from the Qs included in the polls (AND how those Qs get asked AND how respondents are allowed to respond) to the "under the hood" stuff like the weights used for things like age, race, gender, & education.
3. Most people do not understand that these decisions are imposed on the data and that the results then, come out a certain way. This means that one researcher imposing one set of decisions, based on one set of assumptions could analyze the same data as another researcher and get