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3 Jan, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Case rates now and 3 months ago when SAGE suggested a 'circuit breaker' news.sky.com/story/coronavi…

Data from coronavirus.data.gov.uk

A short thread.
22 September: the day after the SAGE meeting.

6,300 cases (7 day average)
354 patients admitted to hospital (7 day average)
1,634 patients in hospital (7 day average)
204 patients in mechanical ventilation beds (7 day ave)
34 deaths/day (7 day ave, within 28 days of +ve test)
20 October

21,866 cases
1,251 patients admitted to hospital
8,499 patients in hospital
733 ventilated patients
217 deaths/day
17 November

19,873 cases
1,676 patients admitted to hospital
17,120 patients in hospital
1,407 ventiated patients
448 deaths/day
15 December

30,636 cases
1,920 patients admitted to hospital
18,141 patients in hospital
1,315 ventilated patients
459 deaths/day
29 December (latest cases data - some figures yet to be reported)

79,818 cases (specimen date cases)
2,886 patients admitted to hospital (England only, 29 Dec)
23,823 patients in hospital (28 Dec figure)
1,847 ventilated patients (28 Dec figure)
524 deaths/day
We could wait for cases, hospitalizations, ICU patients in hospital, and deaths all to increase, or we could do something to stop it.

Compare cases when SAGE recommended a circuit breaker to what we have now.

Then act.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
2 Jan
Who is in intensive care and where are they? A thread.

The Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre @ICNARC have just published their report on COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU/HDU in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audi…
It looks at two periods: up to 31 August (including the devastating first wave), and 1 September - 30 December. There is a lag in reporting, so not all patients are recorded in the Sep-Dec figures.

Remember, these are patients that are *very ill* requring intensive care.
Wide distribution of patients across the country.
Read 19 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
31 Dec 20
Here are the heatmaps for Covid detected cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions. This is up to week 52 (21-29 December). This covers Christmas, so data should be interpreted with caution.

And some commentary in the thread of where we are at the end of 2020.
Detected case rates. Very high amongst working age population, highest in 30-39 year olds. Rates above 150 cases per 100,000 (ie very high rates) in *all* age groups (colour and monochrome versions below)
However, not all cases are detected, so we can look at positivity (number of people testing positive / number of people being tested).

Over 10% positivity in under-80-year-old males and in under-50-year old females.

For the first time, there is over-10% positivity in children.
Read 19 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
3 Dec 20
Mass testing. Results from the Liverpool trial. A thread. And a big problem.

gov.uk/government/pub…
A bit of background. To get out of national Lockdown 1, we were promised a test trace and isolate system. That uses PCR tests. These are accurate, but take time to get results back. There were also significant issues in the way that the Government organized 'NHS' Test & Trace
The Government is now relying on a less accurate technology, Lateral Flow tests. In order to roll these out nationally, the Government tested these.
Read 13 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
2 Dec 20
MHRA / JCVI Briefing live
First phase JCVI prioritization overview Image
First phase prioritization. Only difference is confirmation of 16 as minimum age for recieving the vaccine (for phase 1 only higher risk younger people) Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov 20
Here is the justification document for which regions were placed into each tier from 2 December.

A walkthrough thread.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This updates the Government's prior systems, documented here:
Here's the summary chart.
Read 24 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
26 Nov 20
As soon as we come out of lockdown, we will have one million students moving around the country returning home. Some of these will be infected and will go on to spread the virus. Here's the latest data from PHE showing transmission last week in lockdown

We also have a significant issue when schools break up. These are the latest data for outbreaks in schools

Schools break up around 19 December. What happens if children are infected on the last day of term?
Read 5 tweets

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