Polls have closed in Georgia, and we'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here! dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
You'll want to have this bookmarked: Our county benchmarks, which will give us an idea if each candidate is getting the numbers they need. dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Getting our first few hundred votes. As always: Friends don't let friends over-interpret small numbers of votes.
Big reminder for tonight: Election Day votes will likely favor Republicans; mail votes will likely favor Democrats. It could take us a while to get a clear picture tonight.
We also probably won’t know the winners tonight. It wasn’t until three days after Nov. 3 that Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia and never relinquished it.
A procedural change that made pre-processing of ballots mandatory rather than optional should make counting faster, but we’re likely in for another batch of races that won't be settled tonight gpb.org/news/2020/11/2…
We'll be getting our results for both GA Senate races, as well as the contest for the state Public Service Commission, straight from the AP here! dailykos.com/stories/2021/0…
We always start reporting results when about 10% of expected vote is in to avoid over-interpreting small numbers. Around 5 mil votes were cast in GA in November, and we have 451,000 counted now, so close.
We're just over 500k votes in, 10% of Nov, total. Ossoff 53-47, Warnock 51.5-48.5. Still too early to get clear picture.
Ossoff's brief time running ahead of Warnock is over, at least for now. 633k votes in, Ossoff up 56.6-43.4, Warnock ahead 56.9-43.1
At this point, there don't seem to be any strong early signs to indicate which party has the edge.
The AP and NYT are both predicting a total turnout of 4.2-4.3 mil votes. Just under 5 mil votes were cast in Nov, so that means we could see runoff turnout at about 85% of Election Day turnout.
By contrast, in 2008, which was the last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff, turnout in the runoff was just 57% of Election Day.
1.1 mil votes in (5 mil cast in Nov). Ossoff at 52.7% of vote, Warnock at 53.1%
1.65 mil in, Ossoff 55.6%, Warnock 55.1%. Fulton County gave both Dems a lift.
Ossoff has had a few moments ahead of Warnock, but Warnock has been in better shape for most of the night. 1.67 mil votes in, and its now Ossoff 55.6%, Warnock 55.8%
One massive question we're still waiting on is if the ATL suburbs that have moved hard to the left maintain enough of their GOP downballot loyalty. In Nov, notably Biden ran well ahead of the Senate Dems in #GA06 dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
1.9 mil votes in, Ossoff at 53.9%, Warnock at 54.3%. A LOT left to go, still too early to get a good read on things.
2.1 mil votes in, Ossoff 53.1%, Warnock at 53.5%.
A large portion of conservative Cherokee County came in. With 100,000 votes counted there, Perdue and Loeffler taking 68%; our benchmarks say Dems can win statewide if they hold GOPers to 69% there dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
2.5 mil votes counted statewide, Ossoff 50.4%, Warnock 50.9%. We've seen this gap for a while since more votes have come in.
We've had a lead change as more conservative areas have come in. Perdue at 50.15%, while Warnock up 50.2%.
That was quick. 2.6 mil in, Ossoff back on top with 50.04%, Warnock at 50.34%.
2.8 mil votes in, Perdue ahead with 50.3%, Warnock at 50.2%. Warnock's been running .5% of Ossoff for a while
More conservative areas coming in give Loeffler her first lead in a while. With 2.9 mil votes in, she's at 50.15%, Perdue at 50.52%. A LOT of Atlanta area is left, though.
We're now at that heretofore rare point where Loeffler is running ahead of Perdue. With 3.2 mil votes counted, she's at 50.40% compared to Perdue's 50.14%.
And that didn't last a second. A batch of blue votes give Warnock lead with 50.2%, while Perdue maintains 50.2% lead.
3.275 mil votes in, Perdue 50.7%, Loeffler 50.3%. Problem for them is a lot of blue ATL is left.
The Republican who has been doing best is Public Service Commissioner "Bubba" McDonald, who is at 51.63%, a full point better than Perdue.
Why Dems are (at least cautiously) optimistic as Rs lead 
A decade ago, how many Dems would anticipate waiting eagerly for more of Cobb County to come in?
3.6 mil votes in, Perdue at 51.2%, Loeffler at 50.8%. Still waiting on a lot of votes from heavily D areas, especially in ATL area.
Where we are now: 3.8 mil votes in, Perdue at 51.4%, Loeffler at 51.0%. We're all awaiting a big drop from blue DeKalb County that will tell us a lot about where things are going.
And we continue to play the Waiting Game.
If it's really close, we won't know the winner tonight. But we already knew that
https://twitter.com/StephenWJCL/status/1346661879612059648
And we may need to wait still longer for DeKalb, where Dems are counting on a very strong showing
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346667113046564865
Just over 4 mil votes in. Perdue at 51.5%, margin of 120,000 votes. Loeffler at 51.1%, margin of 87,000 votes. What's left will likely be very blue.
This puts Warnock back in the lead with 50.4%. Perdue clinging to 50.04% lead, margin of about 3,000 votes
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1346671728521580545
Conservative Bartow County comes in for Perdue, gets him 16,000 vote lead statewide with 50.2%. Most of what's left should be very blue, though,
4.25 mil votes in, Perdue at 50.04%, margin of 3,600 votes. Warnock at 50.37%. More blue areas out.
4.3 mil votes in, and Perdue leads by 384 VOTES
Perdue's vote lead went up to 437 out of 4.3 mil cast.
Perdue's lead has moved to 3,712 thanks to some Cobb County ballots. Waiting for more blue areas to come in.
Make that a 1,869 vote lead for Perdue. Slight but dramatic fluctuations, but he's still in rough shape
New York Times estimates only 2,000 E-Day left, plus 80,000 Early/Mail votes left. Very tough math for GOP.
Much higher estimate of remaining votes
https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1346681947901325313
The last time both of a state's U.S. Senate seats flipped on the same night was 1994, when Fred Thompson and Bill Frist won in Tennessee as part of national GOP landslide.
The GOP is in better shape in Public Service Commission race. GOP incumbent Bubba McDonald up 51-49, a margin of 87,000 votes.
Why Perdue's 1,869 lead is so tenuous dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
Perdue's lead now down to 1,208 votes. Warnock up 50.4-49.6, margin of 35,000.
Now Perdue up 1,100. Story remains the same: Almost all that's out is very blue turf, so he'll have tough time holding it.
But don't just take our word for it
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1346694700636532741
We are going to call it on Twitter; check out our rundown of this historic night dailykos.com/stories/2021/1…
We'll be tracking all further developments at Daily Kos Elections. Thank you for joining us tonight!
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