The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise).
But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN
Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):
1. Clayton +6.1
2. Liberty +5.0
3. Rockdale +4.2
4. Douglas +3.9
5. Baldwin +2.7
6. Paulding +2.1
1. Clayton +6.1
2. Liberty +5.0
3. Rockdale +4.2
4. Douglas +3.9
5. Baldwin +2.7
6. Paulding +2.1
Here are the pro-Perdue margin swings vs. Trump '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):
1. Oconee +4.5
2. Greene +3.5
3. Fayette +2.2
4. Glynn +1.8
5. Cherokee +1.8
6. Hall +1.8
1. Oconee +4.5
2. Greene +3.5
3. Fayette +2.2
4. Glynn +1.8
5. Cherokee +1.8
6. Hall +1.8
The problems for Perdue are 1) Biden won by 0.24, so Perdue has to overperform Trump on balance to begin with 2) Ossoff's overperformances are more a bit larger and broader than Perdue's. #GASEN
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