The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise).

But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN
Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):

1. Clayton +6.1
2. Liberty +5.0
3. Rockdale +4.2
4. Douglas +3.9
5. Baldwin +2.7
6. Paulding +2.1
Here are the pro-Perdue margin swings vs. Trump '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):

1. Oconee +4.5
2. Greene +3.5
3. Fayette +2.2
4. Glynn +1.8
5. Cherokee +1.8
6. Hall +1.8
The problems for Perdue are 1) Biden won by 0.24, so Perdue has to overperform Trump on balance to begin with 2) Ossoff's overperformances are more a bit larger and broader than Perdue's. #GASEN

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More from @Redistrict

22 Dec 20
FWIW, I'm still very skeptical Hart/Dems can find 218 votes in the House, a partisan body, to overturn Iowa's state-certified results - especially when Hart never challenged the recount procedures in *court* during/after the recount. #IA02
On DCCC-facilitated press call, an IA reporter asks Hart attorney Marc Elias why they chose to take issue w/ some ballots before the House but not others. Elias says identifying these 22 ballots "made the cleanest presentation" - also notes they include four ballots not for Hart.
On call, Hart campaign says Hart has *not* been in touch with Pelosi/Dem leadership and that whether Miller-Meeks (R) is seated on 1/3 is ultimately up to the House Administration Committee. #IA02
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec 20
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec 20
Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever.
Here's the breakdown of Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel counties won by past new presidents (all based on today's store locations):

1992: Clinton 60% WF, 40% CB = 20% gap
2000: Bush 43% WF, 75% CB = 32% gap
2008: Obama 78% WF, 36% CB = 42% gap
2016: Trump 22% WF, 74% CB = 52% gap
In this context, it's a remarkable achievement that Biden was able to reverse some Dem erosion in Cracker Barrel counties (i.e. places that tend to decide Midwest swing states).

There's no guarantee a future Dem w/ a different profile could hold the line in Erie, Saginaw, etc.
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec 20
Breaking: Manhattan absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 225,435(90%)
Trump 20,184 (8%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.55 million (4.2%).
Bronx absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 83,539 (86%)
Trump 11,891 (12%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.62 million (4.2%).
Brooklyn absentee/affidavit ballots just added...

Biden 189,177 (85%)
Trump 28,041 (13%)

Biden's national popular vote lead climbs to 6.78 million (4.3%).
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov 20
BREAKING: source in #NY22 just relayed the Chenango Co. absentee/affidavit/overseas totals...

Brindisi (D) 3,290 (64.6%)
Tenney (R) 1,448 (28.4%)

Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain.
Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) needed to win the Chenango absentees by ~38% to overtake Tenney's lead and he won them by 36.2%.

Looks like #NY22 could turn into another heartbreaker for House Dems, but given NY's stone age vote tabulation, who knows. Lawyers descending now...
For those wondering why there were about 400 fewer ballots counted than the earlier 5,164 estimate of Chenango ballots...

1) a few hundred votes went to the Libertarian
2) a few left #NY22 race blank
3) a few affidavit ballots were rejected
Read 5 tweets
18 Nov 20
New: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) w/ a solid 70%-30% split out of Oneida Co. today, now trails Claudia Tenney (R) by just 2,089 votes by my count. #NY22 will be decided by ~4800 Chenango Co. absentees tomorrow, and likely to be decided by <500 votes either way. Wow.
Breaking: I've been made aware of a newly counted batch of Madison Co. challenged ballots that broke 91-14 Brindisi, as well as a slight update to Broome Co.'s election day totals. My latest #NY22 tally:

Tenney (R) 153,922 (+1,968)
Brindisi (D) 151,954

It's a jump ball.
Also, #NY22 sources tell me there are 5,165 ballots left to count in Chenango Co. (incl. 280 provisionals) and 32 provisionals left in Oneida, and that's it.

Bottom line: Brindisi (D) would need to win what's left by a margin of ~38% to win.
Read 5 tweets

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