Per source, Claudia Tenney (R)'s #NY22 lead is now just *75 votes* and it's unclear what other ballots remain.
Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) needed to win the Chenango absentees by ~38% to overtake Tenney's lead and he won them by 36.2%.
Looks like #NY22 could turn into another heartbreaker for House Dems, but given NY's stone age vote tabulation, who knows. Lawyers descending now...
For those wondering why there were about 400 fewer ballots counted than the earlier 5,164 estimate of Chenango ballots...
1) a few hundred votes went to the Libertarian 2) a few left #NY22 race blank 3) a few affidavit ballots were rejected
If you really want to get into the weeds, it looks like Brindisi got what he needed out of the rural southern end of Chenango Co. closer to Binghamton, but didn't quite hit the numbers he needed in Norwich city or Sherburne. #NY22
Now, the big hope for Dems/Brindisi is that there are still hundreds more ballots to count in Herkimer/Oneida/Broome, as @JRosenblattTV's reporting suggests. Earlier this week, my #NY22 sources had said these counties were basically done counting.
New: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) w/ a solid 70%-30% split out of Oneida Co. today, now trails Claudia Tenney (R) by just 2,089 votes by my count. #NY22 will be decided by ~4800 Chenango Co. absentees tomorrow, and likely to be decided by <500 votes either way. Wow.
Breaking: I've been made aware of a newly counted batch of Madison Co. challenged ballots that broke 91-14 Brindisi, as well as a slight update to Broome Co.'s election day totals. My latest #NY22 tally:
Tenney (R) 153,922 (+1,968)
Brindisi (D) 151,954
It's a jump ball.
Also, #NY22 sources tell me there are 5,165 ballots left to count in Chenango Co. (incl. 280 provisionals) and 32 provisionals left in Oneida, and that's it.
Bottom line: Brindisi (D) would need to win what's left by a margin of ~38% to win.
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:
Tbh, I hadn't done a deep dive into the numbers in #NY22 until today and kinda can't believe I'm saying this given what else happened down-ballot, but I think Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) might be on pace to win reelection in a heavy Trump district - saving Dems a key House seat.
Per @JRosenblattTV, who has done yeoman's work tracking the numbers in Upstate NY, Claudia Tenney (R) is leading Brindisi (D) 147,890 to 138,161 at the moment.
But there still thousands of heavily D mail ballots left to count in Broome, Chenango, Herkimer & Oneida counties.
In 2018, Brindisi (D) beat Tenney (R) 51%-49% district-wide. Right now, Brindisi is already ahead of his '18 margin in Broome - which still has more heavily D mail ballots to count - as well as Tioga, which might be nearly done counting.
This doesn't even include the six student-heavy precincts in University City currently at 11%-25% ballots counted as a share of RVs (we'd expect turnout there to be very low, but that low?)
Meanwhile, all the Trump-heavy areas of Philly (NE, South) look about fully reported.
The point here is that it would make sense if the outstanding mail ballots in Philly are disproportionately from these "outlier" precincts - and if those ballots end up breaking by an even larger margin for Biden than those that have already been counted.