Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Jan 06 to Jan 12 -
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic 7-day-forecasting for 209 countries and territories.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

14.56 m already vaccinated as of Jan 05.

2/21 - Belgium is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.87), at medium levels of activity, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started. No data reported.

3/21. Germany is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Soft lockdown.
316,962 vaccinated as of Jan 04.

4/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.81), at high levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
51,512 vaccinated as of Jan 04.

5/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), at high levels of activity, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown to at least January 19.
Vaccine campaign has started. No data reported.

6/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at high levels of activity, with decreasing very high to high (by the weekend) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started. No data reported.

8/21. Italy seems close to rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at high levels of activity, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
182,442 vaccinated as of Jan 05.

7/21. France is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), at high levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5,000 vaccinated as of Jan 05.

9/21. Spain is experiencing a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.15), at high levels, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
139,339 vaccinated as of Jan 05.

10/21. The UK is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.23), at very high levels, with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more d.
Lockdown due to the variant B.1.1.7, suspected to cause an increase in transm.
944,539 vaccinated as of Dec 27.

11/21. Ireland is experiencing the most rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epidemic activity in Europe (R-eff=1.51), at high to very high (by the weekend) levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Vaccine campaign has started. No data reported.

12/21. Tunisia does not seem to succeed in taking over control of its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at medium levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. South Africa is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, with increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission.

14/21. Israel will continue to experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.23), at high levels, with high to very high (by the weekend) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
1.37 m vaccinated as of Jan 04.

15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), at medium levels of activity, with decreasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Russia begins vaccination campaign with Sputnik V. 800,000 vaccinated as of Jan 02.

16/21. Japan, although rising in incidence (R-eff=1.14), will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Insights on

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1328471487003680770?s=20

Incl. details of its backward-tracing strategy.

17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (with <800 cases/day, R-eff=0.88), and low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada will see an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at high levels, with increasing high level of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 4 provinces available in the thread:

https://twitter.com/KristenN_06/status/1345747539665051650?s=20

143,250 vaccinations as of Jan 04.

19/21. The US seems close to a rise again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04) at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
Forecast for 7 states in the thread:

https://twitter.com/KristenN_06/status/1345746553311526913?s=20

4.84 m vaccinations as of Jan 05.

20/21. Argentina is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at medium to high (by the weekend) levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
32,013 vaccinated as of Dec 31.

21/21. Uruguay is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at medium levels, with increasing high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.

23/21.
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0