✅Trump supporters gathered in DC, many of them very mad
✅they attended a Trump speech & he bemoaned the election as stolen (it wasn’t) & told them to “walk down to the Capitol” for the Electoral College vote
✅they did
✅pro-Trump vandals then stormed the Capitol
To those who want to pretend this was a genius false-flag operation & say, “well can you be sure every1 was a Trump supporter?” No. There were likely some agents provocateurs from the left. The far right did it to the left in MN but they don’t mention that strib.mn/2ME3w57
But let’s not get sidetracked, this was a pro-Trump act of vandalism in the nation’s Capitol.
Attempts to explain it away as harmless or both-sides it are a mistake bbc.in/2Ly02Av
2: There are signs that Trump voters in Georgia were underperforming in in the northern part of the state —hence Trump’s rally in Dalton— and among white voters without a college degree.
RIP: Gerry Marsden of Gerry and the Peacemakers, famous for “You’ll Never Walk Alone,” which became the anthem for Liverpool Football Club, the singing of which is in the background of 1 of my favorite Pink Floyd songs, “Fearless”
Ware County Election Supervisor Carlos Nelson told me this is false: No one has obtained any machine from his office. There was a human-error tabulation issue discovered during the hand recount, the tallies of which were matched by the just-ended machine recount
2/6 According to Nelson: this involved absentee ballots and human error with tabulation equipment, which have nothing to do with the Dominion voting machines that people use to mark their ballots on Election Day at the precinct.
3/6 Ware County elections workers scanned a batch of ballots but there was a jam during the tabulating process. So ballots needed to be re-scanned. The ballots were then rescanned/tabulated, but they forgot to erase the prior scan
Tweet 1 of 4
Florida has 67 counties but since presidential campaigns are marketing efforts that orient spending by media market, here are the preliminary 2020 election results broken down by those 10 regions (thanks @DavidCypkin for the graphics!)
Who will win Florida? I really don't know. My feeling changes by the minute, interview & data set, the latter 2 of which I've swum in. I can see it being very close or near 3 (a Florida landslide lol). I default to "very close" because of interviews & data, inc. poll avgs
2/4
As for FL polls, if you don't have a 1k sample w/Hispanic oversample, be very wary of relying on its toplines. Many don't provide party breaks (% of Rs, Ds & Is voting for the candidates). Use polls as a guidepost, but pay attn to its partisan/electorate composition, to
3/4 FL has a D+1 electorate right now (Ds cast 39% of ballots; Rs 38%). Rs are expected to change that Election Day but by how much?
Ds think Biden wins R+1 & R+2 electorate. Rs say no to the latter maybe to the former.
Historically, Ds win in D+ electorates, Rs win in R+ years