JUST IN—we can expect 405,000–438,000 total #COVID19 deaths in the United States **by January 30 alone** if current models hold. They don’t fully account for the more contagious B117 variant though, with 40-80% greater transmissibility.
➡️I think 500,000 by end of Feb possible.
➡️I think 500,000 by end of Feb possible.
2) Feb could be a LOT LOT worse. Death surges lag cases by 3 weeks. And we will see the spikes from the #CapitolRiots in coming weeks.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347237031815086082
3) here is why it is so urgent to stop the spread. The new B117 variant is just soooooo damn bad. I don’t have words for it...
...maybe t________r bad. But I don’t wanna throw that word around yet.
...maybe t________r bad. But I don’t wanna throw that word around yet.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249
4) The 2020 total Excess deaths is already poised to exceed 450,000, and likely higher once finalized after reporting lags clear. And my god, deaths are so epic. Show them this graph if anyone says “deaths are no higher”. It’s from the CDC damnit.
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
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