Here's the problem. #DeFi can be valued based on cash flows. $BTC $ETH & layer 1s can not be. When something can be valued, it also creates a theoretical ceiling. That's why VCs often tell startups not to generate revenue - b/c once you have revenue, the valuation model changes.
That's why 80% of the Top 25 digital assets by market cap are such a joke, dominated by Layer 1s and cryptocurrencies with almost no chance of success - because this industry was founded by a VC mentality of "huge upside, low probability of success, but no way to prove me wrong"
$ETH and $BTC have already proven to be successful -- whether they are cheap or expensive is hard to know, but they have undoubtedly succeeded. Many DeFi tokens are definitely cheap, but price gains are somewhat limited by current revenues or multiples on future revenues.
I prefer valuation approaches. Gives me a higher degree of confidence, & higher downside protection. Assets like $NXM $FTT $HXRO $GNO $YFI $UNI
Buyers of tokens like $XTZ $ADA $LTC $XRP or $TSLA equity are basically saying "You can't value it, therefore it can't be expensive!"
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Anyone like great risk/reward setups w/ high upside, low downside & tangible floor value? @NexusMutual $NXM $WNXM
WNXM now trades at a NEGATIVE net market cap. So how did NXM go negative?
A lesson in book value & optionality 👇
2) First, h/t to @DegenSpartan who nailed the "sell call". Investors who focused on $NXM price & the MCR completely misunderstood how Nexus & the NXM token works (myself included).
But the short thesis is completely over and it's now an "all-in buy"
Nexus Mutual, like all insurance companies, has to keep a certain amount of capital in their pool to pay out future claims. What they do with this capital is how insurance companies make money.
The growth in #Bitcoin products like the CME futures and Grayscale's trusts shows that institutions are here already, but these products have limitations, including not being open during volatile trading hours. This manifested itself during Thanksgiving.
Five random Digital Asset and #Bitcoin thoughts heading into the weekend
👇
1) Actively managed hedge funds and passive indexes built around high allocations to $BTC have a very short shelf-life. Investors now have the knowledge & means to buy $BTC themselves. Very soon, investors will specifically seek out digital asset HF strategies that own $0 in BTC.
2) Decentralized governance is less about ideology or risk transfer, & more about capitalism. Historically, there has been nothing in digital assets worth governing, but now, as #DeFi protocols are generating real revenues, there is something worth fighting over.
Facts: 4 Uniswap pools had more liquidity than needed to facilitate trading, & the excess liquidity left once $UNI farming ended. This doesn't affect volumes. TVL is pointless for Uniswap when there is more capital than needed.👇
Uniswap's TVL started going up at the end of August, & has now "crashed" back down to where it was 3 months ago.
But Uniswap's volumes peaked BEFORE TVL even increased, & volumes went down while TVL went up.
Volumes & TVL are not correlated when there is excess capital.
Yes, LPs are critical to Uniswap's success, but go look at CoinFlex if you think incentivizing market makers is the secret to success (hint, it isn't). You need customers too, and Uniswap's customers are much stickier than the LPs.
The rationale for owning $ETH as an investment is that Ethereum is a clear market leader, w/ strong growth/usage, & tangible fee generation even though none of this value accrues to ETH token holders yet.
This is actually the same bull case for $UNI 👇
Uniswap is the clear market leader in DEX trading. Like "ETH vs smart contract protocols", there's not even a close second to $UNI in DEX Trading (courtesy of @DuneAnalytics)
With $ETH, EIP-1559 & ETH 2.0 are constantly in "the future", but the $UNI "Fee Switch" is happening w/ near certainty Feb 16, 2021 (180 days after governance began).
$UNI will then join a small list of tokens like $HXRO $MKR $FTT $BNB that accrue real value from earnings
2) @koeppelmann & @gnosisPM still have not released a formal plan for community review on updated tokenomics, or on the Gnosis DAO that they teased. They stated in their discord that this was going to be released on Sept 9th. This is starting to feel like more empty promises.
3) It is increasingly clear that the community is begging for a plan, whether that be a rebuttal to ours or a new token economic structure altogether. We encourage Gnosis to do right by tokenholders and take this responsibility seriously.