Here's the problem. #DeFi can be valued based on cash flows. $BTC $ETH & layer 1s can not be. When something can be valued, it also creates a theoretical ceiling. That's why VCs often tell startups not to generate revenue - b/c once you have revenue, the valuation model changes.
That's why 80% of the Top 25 digital assets by market cap are such a joke, dominated by Layer 1s and cryptocurrencies with almost no chance of success - because this industry was founded by a VC mentality of "huge upside, low probability of success, but no way to prove me wrong"
$ETH and $BTC have already proven to be successful -- whether they are cheap or expensive is hard to know, but they have undoubtedly succeeded. Many DeFi tokens are definitely cheap, but price gains are somewhat limited by current revenues or multiples on future revenues.
I prefer valuation approaches. Gives me a higher degree of confidence, & higher downside protection. Assets like $NXM $FTT $HXRO $GNO $YFI $UNI

Buyers of tokens like $XTZ $ADA $LTC $XRP or $TSLA equity are basically saying "You can't value it, therefore it can't be expensive!"

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More from @jdorman81

29 Dec 20
Anyone like great risk/reward setups w/ high upside, low downside & tangible floor value? @NexusMutual $NXM $WNXM

WNXM now trades at a NEGATIVE net market cap. So how did NXM go negative?

A lesson in book value & optionality 👇
2) First, h/t to @DegenSpartan who nailed the "sell call". Investors who focused on $NXM price & the MCR completely misunderstood how Nexus & the NXM token works (myself included).

But the short thesis is completely over and it's now an "all-in buy"

Nexus Mutual, like all insurance companies, has to keep a certain amount of capital in their pool to pay out future claims. What they do with this capital is how insurance companies make money.

Profits = Yield on float + premiums paid > claims paid & inv losses

Simple business
Read 6 tweets
30 Nov 20
"That's Our Two Satoshis" is out! This week, we take a look at the institutional adoption of digital assets

ar.ca/blog/crypto-ma…
Was it Paul Revere or Satoshi Nakamoto himself who said "The Institutions are Coming! The Institutions are Coming!"

Regardless, they are currently playing stickball in the parking lot while the pros are playing under the lights of Yankee Stadium.

ar.ca/blog/crypto-ma…
The growth in #Bitcoin products like the CME futures and Grayscale's trusts shows that institutions are here already, but these products have limitations, including not being open during volatile trading hours. This manifested itself during Thanksgiving.

ar.ca/blog/crypto-ma…
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov 20
Five random Digital Asset and #Bitcoin thoughts heading into the weekend

👇
1) Actively managed hedge funds and passive indexes built around high allocations to $BTC have a very short shelf-life. Investors now have the knowledge & means to buy $BTC themselves. Very soon, investors will specifically seek out digital asset HF strategies that own $0 in BTC.
2) Decentralized governance is less about ideology or risk transfer, & more about capitalism. Historically, there has been nothing in digital assets worth governing, but now, as #DeFi protocols are generating real revenues, there is something worth fighting over.
Read 6 tweets
17 Nov 20
Love the "Uniswap liquidity plunges" clickbait.

Facts: 4 Uniswap pools had more liquidity than needed to facilitate trading, & the excess liquidity left once $UNI farming ended. This doesn't affect volumes. TVL is pointless for Uniswap when there is more capital than needed.👇
Uniswap's TVL started going up at the end of August, & has now "crashed" back down to where it was 3 months ago.

But Uniswap's volumes peaked BEFORE TVL even increased, & volumes went down while TVL went up.

Volumes & TVL are not correlated when there is excess capital.
Yes, LPs are critical to Uniswap's success, but go look at CoinFlex if you think incentivizing market makers is the secret to success (hint, it isn't). You need customers too, and Uniswap's customers are much stickier than the LPs.

As long as customers show up, LPs will stay.
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct 20
A thread on Uniswap $UNI

The rationale for owning $ETH as an investment is that Ethereum is a clear market leader, w/ strong growth/usage, & tangible fee generation even though none of this value accrues to ETH token holders yet.

This is actually the same bull case for $UNI 👇
Uniswap is the clear market leader in DEX trading. Like "ETH vs smart contract protocols", there's not even a close second to $UNI in DEX Trading (courtesy of @DuneAnalytics)
With $ETH, EIP-1559 & ETH 2.0 are constantly in "the future", but the $UNI "Fee Switch" is happening w/ near certainty Feb 16, 2021 (180 days after governance began).

$UNI will then join a small list of tokens like $HXRO $MKR $FTT $BNB that accrue real value from earnings
Read 15 tweets
25 Sep 20
Attention token holders. Another week of unfulfilled promises & silence from @koeppelmann & @StefanDGeorge. Seems to be a trend.

Meanwhile, @arca continues to get feedback from holders who support our Tender Offer plan.

When will you respond @gnosisPM? Thread 👇
2) @koeppelmann & @gnosisPM still have not released a formal plan for community review on updated tokenomics, or on the Gnosis DAO that they teased. They stated in their discord that this was going to be released on Sept 9th. This is starting to feel like more empty promises. ImageImageImageImage
3) It is increasingly clear that the community is begging for a plan, whether that be a rebuttal to ours or a new token economic structure altogether. We encourage Gnosis to do right by tokenholders and take this responsibility seriously. ImageImageImage
Read 15 tweets

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