Thread by @DavidSteadson

So a week ago I posted the below tweet about the start difference in infections between Northern Ireland and Ireland

It was clear supporting evidence that policy actually makes a difference in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1344661228648599552

Unfortunately Ireland is providing further evidence of this, but in the wrong way. In late October, Ireland announced they would undergo tough restrictions to get the virus under control, starting midnight, Oct 31st.

eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/n…

Here's how the situation looked then. Grim.

Amongst other things, non-essential shops were closed, restaurants moved to take-away only, and people were told to stay within 5km of their homes.

The effect was stunning. Cases started dropping immediately.

Lockdowns work.

Nov 27 the Irish Government announced they'd be relaxing the restrictions.

Dec 1 shops, hairdressers, museums, libraries, gyms, religious services and sports training called all reopen

Dec 4 restaurants and pubs that serve meals could reopen

The effect, while initially not as dramatic, was also clear. Cases were no longer dropping, perhaps even a slight upward trend was apparent. Anders Tegnell would call it a slightly rising plateau.

Dec 18 travel restrictions were lifted and people were also cleared to mix with people outside their "bubble", including Northern Ireland. A week later, things looked like this -

And the latest update is little short of shocking.

This last shocking explosion isn't just a further lesson on the effect of imposing and lifting restrictions, it's also a lesson in the danger in the new B.177 variant of the virus. In the week before Christmas, Ireland reported less 9% of sample cases were the new variant.

Last week, it was 25%

irishtimes.com/news/health/ri…

Contrarians will undoubtedly point to the fact that Ireland also did something else in this period. First advising fast masks outside in crowds and crowded work places (Dec 1) and then mandating them in many places from Dec 21,

Yet cases have soared.

The lessons here

- don't lift restrictions too early, a lesson we've learned again and again around the world
- masks are not enough, especially when cases are high (no-one said they were!)
- this new variant is changing the game, in a bad way
- get those vaccines out, now.

ps Stark difference, not start! 😛

(could all reopen ... not called ... I blame covid fog)

(uggh, face masks not fast masks .... really interesting the way the brain works on these typos ... phonetically very similar words ...🤔)