171 new #covid19sverige deaths reported today, taking the total to 9433. Oldest change -1 to Nov 30 (+1 to next day). Largest change +20 to Dec 27. Dec 17 increases to 114 deaths, 1 below the 155 peak of Wave 1 (April 8 and 15). A new graph today!
31 deaths currently have date unrecorded, they are added on the last day of the graph of cumulative deaths. The gap between lines gives an indication of lag of updates, and it is clearly the worst of the pandemic at present.
In the graph above, each line represents the data for the entire pandemic has reported on a given day, with the most recent data the longest line (orange).

With the latest updates, the steepness of the curve is now similar to that of wave 1.
This indicates that daily deaths are at a similar level to wave 1. The rolling daily average has not yet the April 16 high of 99 but it can be expected this will occur as updates roll in. It is currently 87 on Dec 17 and 20.
Hospitalisation continue to increase, currently just below 3000. It's important to remember - this isn't cumulative, this is how many people are in hospital due to Covid-19 *right now* (graph by platz.se)
387 Covid-19 patients reported in ICU as of yesterday. Note that this data lags a day or to, so the last few days are subject to change.

Again some context - At the start of the pandemic, Sweden had 526 ICU beds. This mean 75% of normal ICU capacity is now dedicated to Covid.
Multiple confirmed cases of the B177 variant of the virus now confirmed in Sweden, with at least 5 having unidentified sources. It is clearly in community spread and we can expect it to start showing it's affect on testing data over the next 2 weeks.
Unfortunately I'm seeing reports from multiple regions of continued problems with a lack of staffing and a lack of material for testing, so - with regional differences -testing is unable to keep up with demand. Together with holidays this means case data is wholly unreliable.
Positivity tells a somewhat different story, now exceeding 20% nationally. (Graph by @covidxix)
Numerous significant changes regarding Swedish restrictions today. Most regions have announced that middle school (grades 7-9) will remain distance education until at least Jan 24.

Masks became recommended on public transport during peak hour as of yesterday.
Most importantly, a new law was passed allowing the government to close shops, shopping centers, gyms, and other establishments. This becomes an option from Sunday.

Vaccinations are also now underway. National data is still hard to come by. A press conference now may tell more.
New restrictions announced - all retail establishments, sports halls and gyms must limit the number of people in the venue to no more than would allow each visitor 10m2.

This applies from Sunday January 10.

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…

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More from @DavidSteadson

7 Jan
So a week ago I posted the below tweet about the start difference in infections between Northern Ireland and Ireland

It was clear supporting evidence that policy actually makes a difference in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Unfortunately Ireland is providing further evidence of this, but in the wrong way. In late October, Ireland announced they would undergo tough restrictions to get the virus under control, starting midnight, Oct 31st.

eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/n…
Here's how the situation looked then. Grim. Image
Read 15 tweets
7 Jan
277 new #covid19sverige deaths reported by Folkhälsomyndigheten today, taking the total to 9262. The data includes a death added to January 4 2020, I am assuming this is an error and should be January 4 2021.

Outside of that, oldest change +1 to Dec 1, largest +31 (Dec 17.
Dec 17, Sweden has hit a wave 2 high of 110 deaths, the 4th highest mortality in a day since the pandemic began, and sadly confirming my prediction to Expressen in November that we would exceed 100 deaths in a day before Christmas. 😥 😥
I literally have tears running down my face right now. I did not want to be right about this. Each of these numbers is real person, with a whole circle of family and friends who loved them 😥 I sometimes feel that those in charge do not think about this.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
Now, the the instructions I've received on my responsibilities as someone who has tested positive. It was issued by the Swedish Medical Association and I was given it in Swedish. The link said it was available in other languages, but no information at all on how to obtain it.
My Swedish is OK, but it's pretty heavy going. As a PDF there's no simple translate button as many have for websites either.

Not that you want automatic translators dispensing critical medical advice! So we're left with my bad translation. 😶

slf.se/smittskyddslak…
It says Covid-19 is a virus infection that's usually mild, but a few people get it seriously, lists the well known symptoms.

Explains it spreads through droplets, that when you cough or sneeze they get in the air and then can land on people close by or on surfaces or objects.
Read 10 tweets
6 Jan
Long thread incoming!

So as I reported earlier, I tested positive for Covid on Tuesday. I thought I'd explain the process that has occurred with testing and contact tracing. This is applicable to my region only (Uppsala), but is similar for all over Sweden.
I hope this gives some insight in to how Sweden is handling the Covid crisis. (hint: badly)
On Saturday, my wife started experiencing symptoms. Coughing and feeling of burning up along with fatigue. No temperature.

Sunday evening, despite having had #longcovid symptoms for nearly 10 months including a cough and SPO2 problems I began to experience additional symptoms.
Read 31 tweets
5 Jan
A few days ago I outlined my concerns about Anders Tegnell's lack of training and experience in statistics and it's affect on his ability to operate effectively as Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist.

We already know he didn't understand R - the reproduction number - with emails from early on in the pandemic revealing him asking colleagues how it works.

And later in an interview claiming simultaneously that the spread of infection was increasing, but R was below 1.

This of course makes no sense.

omni.se/tegnell-om-utv…
Read 15 tweets
5 Jan
258 new #covid19sverige deaths reported today, taking the total to 8985. As noted earlier, this data is not even close to up to date due to holidays. Oldest change +1 to Nov 7. Additions to every day from Dec 9. Current peaks 83 on Dec 10 and Dec 14. 35 deaths with no date.
For new followers, each line on the graphs is the data as reported on a particular day. New reports update the data on many previous days, hence the curve keeps changing. Not understanding this leads to believing a plateau has been reached when in fact it is just an artefact.
This is even more apparent when we look at the rolling 7-day average of deaths per day. It always looks as if things are improving. As data updates, you can find it was an illusion. Current peak at 76 on Dec 16 and 17, up from 71.
Read 13 tweets

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