Currently a major surge, but we project a plateau in critically ill in a week
Despite all this, Israel tightened its 3rd lockdown today
A thread on why this was the right decision to make now
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In 1-2 weeks, we expect a plateau in the critically ill due to:
1. Effect of the less strict lockdown imposed 10 days ago
2. Start of the vaccines effect
3. Striking similarity in critically ill rise in the 2nd and 3rd lockdowns. If a rerun, then plateau is a few days away
There are early signs for our projection of a plateau in the coming 1-2 weeks, since the Arab sector has already plateaued, and in the other sectors despite a >60% weekly rise in cases in children, 60+ rose only 10%
May also be the first effects of the vaccines. Too early to say
However, in the background of all this, the UK variant B.1.1.7 is here and spreading
Current estimates are for ~5-10% prevalence, and even at 5% this means dominance in ~4 weeks and ~20K daily cases in ~6 weeks
Look at the outbreak in the orthodox
16-fold increase in cases in 4 weeks. Doubling every week for 4 weeks, from 100 to 1600 daily cases per million
Such rapid growth was never seen here and is likely partly due to the UK variant, estimated to be ~20% prevalence in the orthodox
We modeled two scenarios:
1. Removing the lockdown next week 2. Extending the lockdown next week
We took vaccine pace and effect into account, and model each patient's trajectory including hospitalizations and deaths
The model outcomes left no choice. With a 5% prevalence for the UK variant, and even when assuming only a 50% rise in infectiousness and an R of 1, the rise in cases, critically ill, and the death toll were overwhelmingly more, outpacing even the rapid vaccination rate of Israel
Two additional weeks of lockdown combined with rapid vaccination allow a much more manageable response to the UK variant
What was striking is that the difference between extending and removing the lockdown next week was not just quantitative but qualitative:
Removing the lockdown next week results in a short term plateau but a major surge afterwards that extends to March
Extending the lockdown suppresses the UK variant and these extra weeks, when combined with rapid vaccination, allows the suppression of the surge in critically ill
Much is unknown, but these differences left no choice. A 50% increase in infectiousness is just all too powerful
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Numbers were still high when we exited 2nd lockdown
And we repeated the same mistakes of the second wave. When cases started rising in specific sectors, first the Arab sector, then the orthodox, we didn't put enough measures in these peak areas, so eventually it spread to all sectors and all cities
בחלופה של הסגר שמתחיל מחר, ובהנחה שיעילותו תהיה דומה לסגר השני, יצא לנו ששיא התחלואה יהיה באמצע ינואר ומשם תתחיל ירידה בתחלואה. בשיא יהיו כ-6000 מאומתים, 900 חולים קשה בבתי החולים ועוד כ-1100 נפטרים מקורונה עד מרץ