Currently a major surge, but we project a plateau in critically ill in a week
Despite all this, Israel tightened its 3rd lockdown today
A thread on why this was the right decision to make now
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In 1-2 weeks, we expect a plateau in the critically ill due to:
1. Effect of the less strict lockdown imposed 10 days ago
2. Start of the vaccines effect
3. Striking similarity in critically ill rise in the 2nd and 3rd lockdowns. If a rerun, then plateau is a few days away
There are early signs for our projection of a plateau in the coming 1-2 weeks, since the Arab sector has already plateaued, and in the other sectors despite a >60% weekly rise in cases in children, 60+ rose only 10%
May also be the first effects of the vaccines. Too early to say
Numbers were still high when we exited 2nd lockdown
And we repeated the same mistakes of the second wave. When cases started rising in specific sectors, first the Arab sector, then the orthodox, we didn't put enough measures in these peak areas, so eventually it spread to all sectors and all cities
בחלופה של הסגר שמתחיל מחר, ובהנחה שיעילותו תהיה דומה לסגר השני, יצא לנו ששיא התחלואה יהיה באמצע ינואר ומשם תתחיל ירידה בתחלואה. בשיא יהיו כ-6000 מאומתים, 900 חולים קשה בבתי החולים ועוד כ-1100 נפטרים מקורונה עד מרץ