It's worth considering why Dems have succeeded in Georgia but failed in another state with a fairly similar demographic profile that's extremely important for their long-term prospects of winning power: North Carolina.
First of all, Georgia is simply a more "major metro" state. The Atlanta metro area now casts 59% of the state's votes, whereas the Charlotte/Research Triangle areas *combined* cast only 42% of North Carolina's votes.
NC is simply a more small town/rural state.
NC is simply a more small town/rural state.
Second, whereas Dems "bottomed out" w/ rural GA whites a few years ago, they've continued to backslide w/ rural voters in NC - esp. in the Sandhills region - canceling out their suburban gains.
GA doesn't have an equivalent Robeson Co., which voted 58% Obama '12 & 59% Trump '20.
GA doesn't have an equivalent Robeson Co., which voted 58% Obama '12 & 59% Trump '20.
But third, when's the last time NC Dems have run a Black candidate in a Sen/Gov race? 1996.
They last won a Senate race in 2008, when Obama led the ticket. And they haven't had a galvanizing Stacey Abrams/Raphael Warnock candidacy. I think it's part of the shortcoming, tbh.
They last won a Senate race in 2008, when Obama led the ticket. And they haven't had a galvanizing Stacey Abrams/Raphael Warnock candidacy. I think it's part of the shortcoming, tbh.
Obviously it's not as simple as, "who will be NC's Stacey Abrams?" After all, GA is 32% Black and NC just 22%.
But I do think NC Republicans would have more reason to fear running against a charismatic Black Dem in the future than another Cal Cunningham-type profile.
But I do think NC Republicans would have more reason to fear running against a charismatic Black Dem in the future than another Cal Cunningham-type profile.
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