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Ed Conway Profile picture
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10 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Duncan is right. Lockdown rules are slightly softer. More key workers. More COVID-compliant workplaces.
It feels v plausible there’s less compliance this time around but is that really clear cut from mobility data alone?
Also worth bearing in mind in lockdown 1 there’s lots of evidence that many households & businesses went above & beyond the rules. Eg key workers not sending children to school even tho they could. Firms (esp construction) shuttering tho rules said they could continue working…
When I take a (completely unscientific but perhaps no less unscientific than some of the hot takes out there) glance at the data I’d say: less movement than autumn lockdown but more than last spring. That doesn’t seem too far detached from the severity of the rules themselves
Interesting
Another good point: more testing than in spring might also mean more movement than in spring

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More from @EdConwaySky

Ed Conway Profile picture
11 Jan
Where does #COVID19 rank in the most depressing league table of all - the one comparing historic pandemics? We won't know for sure until the pandemic is over but we do now have enough data to draw some early conclusions. I've done some digging into the numbers:
I should say that I began this process unsure of what I'd find. Back in the spring I looked back at historical weekly deaths figs and found that while the 2020 levels were horribly high (and unprecedented seasonally) some weeks of Hong Kong flu were worse.
The weekly deaths numbers only go back so far. But we now have data for the 52 weeks of 2020 up to Christmas Day, which is enough to make a conservative estimate of how 2020 compares with history. And we have nearly two centuries of data to compare it to…
Read 17 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
6 Jan
There will doubtless be lots of attention on this number tonight: 1k #COVID19 deaths for first time since last spring.
Now, a lot of people are dying, the number is mounting and this is clearly awful news.
BUT be cautious about this fig. It comes back to the bank holiday effect…
As I said yday, testing and deaths registration is affected by xmas and new year - and that’s happening with this data. The 1k deaths figure is not deaths happening in the past 24 hours but deaths REPORTED in that period. An important distinction when gauging #COVID19 spread
In the case of tonight’s 1k deaths figure, almost one in four of them happened more than a week ago: there’s a big backlog of registrations which are only now being processed. The real picture is the red line in this chart. Not the grey line (where that 1k fig comes from)
Read 5 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
5 Jan
I’m diving back into the #COVID19 data.
I’d rather hoped I wouldn’t have to but the stats are, once again, scary.
However, I hope I can provide some context, since I see there are still plenty claiming this is either the end of the world or nothing to fear at all.
A case in point is tweets like this. George is right that the curve is almost vertical, but this is precisely why it makes sense to use logarithmic axes and provide some cross-country comparisons. You might, to look at this, have assumed the UK faces a unique crisis, but no:
Convert it to a log axis and add a couple of countries it’s a different story. Yes the UK rise recently is fast, but actually Ireland’s looks faster - though still at slightly lower levels than in UK. Compare UK to Belgium and you see it had a considerably worse outbreak in Oct
Read 16 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
1 Jan
Which developed country would you say is facing the biggest economic slump of all? The conventional answer is the UK. Eg see this @OECD forecast. But here's a thread about an obscure bit of statistical small print which might mean we've been overstating the scale of the recession
Before we get onto the small print let's deal with what the numbers are telling us. And there's no doubt they're bad. Very bad. Indeed, the @OBR_UK reckons we're facing the biggest slump in GDP since 1709. Down 11% this year alone.
We won't get final 2020 GDP for months (and even that'll be subject to revision). But on the basis of the 1st estimate of Q3 GDP UK contracted at annual rate of 9.7%. So you can see where OBR are coming from ons.gov.uk/economy/grossd…

* yes it was later revised; we'll get to that
Read 25 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
24 Dec 20
Here’s a fundamental Brexit truth I don’t think we’ve discussed enough: the reason why Brexit has been on the front pages for so much of the past few years doesn’t actually have that much to do with Brexit. Let me explain:
Of course the UK’s relationship with the EU is of enormous economic, social & legal importance, past, present and future. Of course the trade deal matters, as will immigration rules and all the rest. But the real, real reason Brexit has been such a big deal is something else:
Brexit is first and foremost a story about the Tory party, which happens to be the party of government. Brexit mattered these past four and a half years because it deposed two prime ministers. It decided elections. It was an issue of immense political significance.
Read 11 tweets
Ed Conway Profile picture
6 Nov 20
Transparency, worst case scenarios, & why govt is treading a dangerous path over #COVID19.
This is the longest thread I've ever posted.
But I think it may be among the most important.
Please do read and share if it strikes a chord.
This stuff affects all of us.
Deep breath... 🧵
Before we go any further let's get something out of the way: I'm not making a point here abt whether govt is right or wrong to impose lockdown. Like most of you, I can see strong arguments for & against but respect that others are better informed than I am to make these calls
This is really about something else: trust. Lockdowns, like em or not, won't work if no-one trusts the process and doesn't comply. It would be the worst of both worlds - economic damage but limited epidemiological effect. But that trust is earned. And easily lost.
Read 33 tweets

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