Thread by @DrEricDing

Concerning—WHO head @DrTedros now sounding the alarm on concern that more the virus spreads, increases chance of mutations.

He adds: "Transmissibility of some variants of the virus appears to be increasing." #COVID19

2) Here is one of the worrisome strains @DrTedros is referring to:

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348606324901359619

3) Like Dr Tedros, Danish CDC is also sounding the alarm on the likelihood the #b117 strain might dominate and take over by Feb/March.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249

4) the #B117 variant is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant w/ ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline

➡️6x vs old strain.

5) Basically, Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC (@SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we maybe in deep trouble by spring time.

6) Pandemic expert group @IndependentSage also declares the UK pandemic situation “now out of control”.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346064285978521605

7) here is also concerns about the B117 strain in youngest kids 0-9. And I have checked, it’s statistically different from those age 10 or older.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347745261670584321

8) Ireland has also seen a 10x case increase in last few weeks. Just announced today that Ireland’s #B117 is now 45% of new cases, up from 25% last week, up from 9% 2 weeks earlier.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348080234265006082

9) here is the worrisome Ireland announcement from its PM this morning

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348598047996080128