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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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11 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
#NagornoKarabakh: Using the precedent of the 2020 truce, Putin plays again a pivotal role in closing another deal between Armenia & Azerbaijan. 1) The new trilateral doc. signed in Moscow focus on economic-transportation ties, increasing Russia’s role as region’s peacemaker.
2) The second deal shakes further Pashinyan’s premiership. He has tried to speak in Moscow in favor of Armenian interests - the status of Artsakh, the exchange of the war prisoners. But that might be not enough to save his political career. 👇 en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Let us remember what the ceasefire armistice of Nov. 2020 consisted of 👇
3) Meanwhile, Aliyev has singled out that the strategic dialogue with Russia will thrive. The Russian leader wants to extend it beyond economics to humanitarian aspects. Azerbaijan is following Belarus and Russia in terms of the Russian language usage. azernews.az/nation/174880.…
4) The Armenian opposition is dissatisfied with the new agreement, because it would serve the “enemy” continuing to nurture the revanchist discourse. news.am/eng/news/62302…
5) The transportation issue is an essential “carrot” found by Russia to further the progress around the truce. Thus, Armenia would be able to have railway transportation via Azerbaijan with Russia & Iran. In turn, Azerbaijan can (re-)connect with Nakhchivan Autonomy & Turkey.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
12 Jan
#Moldova: The Presidents Sandu and Zelensky signed two memorandums. The first one stretches over the strategic bilateral cooperation and the synchronization of the steps regionally. 1) In this sense, Sandu wants Moldova to join Ukraine’s bid to adhere the “3 Seas” initiative.
2) Sandu has insisted to mention in the memorandum a domestic political dimension by suggesting that her victory at the elections “confirmed the European choice” of the country, along with public request for fighting the corruption.
3) Sandu and Zelensky agreed to endeavor jointly in order to achieve the EU membership, including via Association Agreements’ implementation. They underlined the individual dialogue between Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine with the EU, besides the EaP.
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
12 Jan
#Moldova: The president Sandu is in Kyiv in her first official visit abroad. She and her team went by car (that is quite strange security-wise). 1) Her agenda is filled with a several symbolic ceremonies of commemorating the victims of Holodomor and the “Hevenly Hundred Heroes”. Image
2) Sandu is expected to sign several bilateral documents. There is zero transparency about what is to be signed. The Moldovan and the Ukrainian presidency offices didn’t disclose any info about that. 3) President Sandu will also meet with the Ukrainian PM and Speaker of Rada. Image
4) The agenda press-release from Zelensky’s office tells that the two presidents will hold negotiations (it’s unclear in what exactly). Nothing was communicated about negotiations by the Moldovan side 👇 bit.ly/3nCM51u
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
6 Dec 20
#Moldova: In less than 30 min, the protests are going to start. By means of these protests, the opposition and president elect Sandu are demanding for early parliamentary elections. This thread covers the situation around these protests. THREAD:
1. The major trigger of the protests were the legislative actions of Socialists/Dodon to limit some competences of the President elect Sandu. I explained it here 👇
2. The EU and Romania have signaled their support to the criticism of Sandu and the opposition regarding the limitation of the competences and overall the correctness of legislative process. 👇
Read 12 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
4 Dec 20
The president elect Maia Sandu may encounter problems in the relations with Russia. Here is the THREAD (/18):
1.The election of the new Moldovan president inevitably influences FP, but less structurally and more at the institutional level. Objectively, the qualitative transformations in FP began after the fall of the oligarchic regime in the summer of 2019. neweasterneurope.eu/2019/11/13/the…
2.The presidential elections in November 2020 and the victory of Maia Sandu can produce qualitative changes at the level of the president's institution. Therefore, under Sandu's leadership, the president's office needs to escape from "isolation", and less so the country.
Read 19 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
3 Dec 20
#Moldova: President-elect Sandu’s political party managed to mobilize around 100 people so far. The controversial politician Usatii has is backing the today’s protest too. However, his voter base is not in Chisinau. Parliament might try to vote some problematic laws. Read more👇
1) The real size of protests is hard to assess. From the pictures it’s visible that we can’t talk about dozens, but rather hundreds. So, more people might join soon. The protesters wear masks, but the social distance is not respected, as asked for the president-elect Sandu.
2) To read accurate and objective information about the situation in Moldova follow newsmaker.md and moldova.europalibera.org. During the day, I come up with more updates. Stay tuned!
Read 12 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
2 Dec 20
#Moldova: 1) The president-elect Maia Sandu asked people to take to the streets and protest against Dodon and the Socialists Party. Sandu accuses the latter of the attempt to strip the president of the control over the intelligent service.
2) She presented this initiative as a tentative to steal the results of the elections. The protests should start tomorrow. The president-elect condemned harshly Dodon for allegedly trying to serve the interests of the oligarchic groups.
3) Earlier today, the former allies of Sandu, the Platform DA slammed Dodon and the Socialist for stirring inter-ethnic animosities by planning to pass in the parliament the law on a special status for Russian language.
Read 7 tweets

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