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krakek

@krakek1

12 Jan

https://twitter.com/krakek1/status/1348791021719740417

Some context on the earlier discussion.

Below you could see polygon formed by the Alaskan missile defence site and the two relevant Russian EW radars.

(sorry for the quality, middle part of this horrible polygon is ~200km high above sea level)

https://twitter.com/krakek1/status/1348791021719740417

As you could see missile defence interceptors from Alaska are unlikely to enter the radar coverage even if they fly optimal ballistic trajectories.

So the only sensor capable of detecting them would be EKS/Kupol or possible future radar at Chukotka.

@nktpnd

CC @nktpnd @nukestrat @russianforces @KomissarWhipla @PTopych

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krakek

@krakek1

10 Nov 20

A short refresher thread on the legacy Russian NC3.

First, there was a supporting system for the NCA, which allowed the President (and the MoD) to communicate with the military and to release the unlocker codes for the launches.

Unlocker codes are then pushed down to launchers.

Proprietary ownership by civilians was/is important because it ensured that only the relevant civilian authorities can order the launches, military authority would not have the unlocker codes.

My understanding is that Perimeter also receives them as a part of pre-delegation.

Then the orders would go through the service specific NC3 systems, Signal-A and Vyuga for the SMFs, the former was a hierarchical system to support the standard chain of command from the Central CP of SMFs onwards mainly.

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krakek

@krakek1

18 Oct 20

Food for thought, over 2020s we may see a trend of existing S400 regiments (30+ of them) being reinforced with S500 divizions, which would lead to addition of ~180+ engagement channels focussed on MRBMs, IRBMs and possibly with some ICBM capability. 1/6

This force may provide not only a system for strategic defence against sub-ICBM BMs (ie from Middle East and elsewhere, as those proliferate), but also some capability against the potential HGV and other similar threats.

But I would expect this to be overshadowed... 2/6

In the discussions by their potential to form a second echelon in terms of strategic defence against ICBM threats, together with new EW means and exo-atmospheric interceptors.

But all three would probably be one of the drivers behind marketing it as an S400 upgrade package. 3/6

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krakek

@krakek1

8 Oct 20

On the topic of arms control, de-alerting and the like.

As we prepare for possible extension of NST specifically and some sort of future arms control in general I would caution against mirror immaging and copypasting exact approaches across the board. 1/7

This is not only true due to different concerns the parties may have and thus seek to adress but also due to technical, doctrinal and geographical differences between the parties.

So lets look at the de-alerting as one of the common ideas floating around. 2/7

The main argument seems to be that the (US) silo based ICBM force is non survivable and must be used in a LoW style strike, which can lead to launches on false warning, etc.

This leads to the conclusion that SSBNs and other mobile platforms are inherently better 3/7

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krakek

@krakek1

6 Sep 20

In the light of the soon demise of the NST, some long term trends for the Russian triad, in a short thread.
Overall the triad seems to be stable in terms of numbers, with modernisation being focussed on the like for like replacements and development of new capabilities. 1/10

First of all, what kinds of new technical capabilities can we expect? In addition to the Avanguard HGV that sort of went through IOC already there is a smaller HGV for the Sarmat (for MIRV) and what appears to likely be a powered HGV (Anchar-RV), most likely on light ICBMs. 2/10

There is also the concept of parallel staging comming about in the form of likely parallel RV dispersal on Yars and possibly other ICBMs (ie Sarmat).

This is there in anticipation of space based weapons systems as allows faster (earlier?) deployement. 3/10

Read 12 tweets

krakek

@krakek1

21 Nov 19

This graphic of #JL2 may be of interest, especially if it is accurate. Found on the internet.

While the depiction of the SSBN with the WAA style sonar set up is not surprising, the depiction of the SLBM is, note the large discardable launch fairing used, with what appears to be classical sequential RV/third stage set up under it.

@nukestrat

CC @nukestrat @NuclearAnthro @nktpnd @PaperMissiles @divert_thruster @DuitsyWasHere @russianforces

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