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Liam Donovan Profile picture
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12 Jan, 3 tweets, 1 min read
As stunning as Rs moving against Trump would be, the alternative is that he sticks around and makes their lives/careers hell for the next four years (at least.) If that's going to happen anyway, a clean break looks pretty attractive. Now or never. nytimes.com/2021/01/12/us/…
Also relevant
And it's not just the still-eerie twitter tranquility--he has been relatively silent and invisible for an entire week in ways that can only embolden people at a time when he could have been shoring up his support.

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Liam Donovan Profile picture
8 Jan
I am wildly skeptical of this counterfactual to the point that I'm nearly certain the electoral implications would have been far worse, and/but I'd say the the last two months strongly indicates that it wasn't worth the extra seats.
That political case would have been a function of the response to a pandemic we didn't know was around the corner, so again just not part of the calculus. It always had to be driven by a moral imperative rather than some idea of electoral reward.
Whatever the merits, by not impeaching (then and now) you avoid an existential intraparty reckoning. But the reckoning is coming, and after the last few days it seems closer and more fraught than ever. The path of least resistance still ends the same way.
Read 5 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
5 Jan
Best way to think about GA state of play w/o getting caught up in lean/tilt semantics or overanalyzing EV entrails: Ds have done enough to win, but not enough to put it out of reach. Leader in the clubhouse watching the last pairing. Rs need a strong day but nothing unreasonable.
Which is why most of the late "movement" here is illusory--rapid shift in CW is mostly a function of people scrambling to compensate for a bad initial read. This was always going to be a win-ugly, down to the wire race. We now know Dems aren't going to lose it; Rs have to go win.
And as tempting as it is to pin the outcome on the shiny objects of the last week or two, Rs' shot at hitting their requisite numbers is built on 8 weeks of presidential scale ground game and mobilization efforts. 1M+ votes isn't built or crumbled overnight, even w/ DJT in town.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
29 Dec 20
::whispers:: Georgia still isn't going to come down to covid relief, $2000 checks or otherwise
This isn't a "lol nothing matters" argument--Trump has put Rs in a weird spot, while giving Ds an opening to score political points if not a big policy win. There may be a point where they decide the least worst outcome is to swallow a $450B suspension bill (though I doubt it.)
But unlikely voters don't become likely run-off voters (let alone persuadable ones) because they were keyed into what Congress was doing--or not doing--over the holidays. This is going to be a tough, tight slog and there's no one neat policy trick that's going to clinch it.
Read 6 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
17 Nov 20
Thanks to Charlie Kirk's ongoing effort to radicalize you boomer parents by leveraging the dusty credentials of elderly brass, I now have to know/care wtf hammer and scorecard is. FU chuck.
Do not google(/bing.)
He binged
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
7 Nov 20
This slide suddenly seems very relevant
A little more color on that one
Next two slides give a sense of what Rs essentially precluded by clinching at least 50 seats. That marginal seat is wildly important to Dems' range of legislative motion.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
7 Nov 20
So let's take a look at #GASEN for a minute. lpdonovan.substack.com/p/georgia-on-m…
First, by the numbers. GOP won more raw votes in both races, albeit narrowly. Perdue in particular ran 2pts ahead of DJT, and in 48 other states, he'd be locked in for another term. Otoh, Biden is on the verge a fairly stunning victory among the same voters.
Second, synergy, for lack of a less consultant-y term. This is a 2-for-1 special where both tickets stand to be complimentary. Perdue surely helps the post-primary reconciliation effort for Rs, and the Ossoff-Warnock buddy comedy is an intriguing combo for Ds, at least on paper.
Read 5 tweets

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