Thread by @DMDent

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett You realise that we are now yr by yr are on a steep incline of deaths do you? So, that comparing to previous years averages is MISLEADING. So this is the total UK deaths by all cause - look at the incline over last 10 years, and that was when 1945 boomers hit 65. Now they are 75.

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett So, on that incline, we should expect total UK c 650k, given a normal flu yr. Mild we'd maybe got away with 630k. Severe 680-700k. These would be expected deaths this yr WITHOUT Covid but with flu, all strengths considered. So let's go with average of those 650k. So NI & Scotland

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett need to be added to the figure you furnished Eng & Wales.
So NI its 17, 613
Scotland
15 932 1st Q
18 201 2nd Q
13 295 3rd Q
So I cant see figures for the last Q so let's say its as high as the 18k it's going to be 65k. So NI

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett added to that it's 82 000 ish.

So, then add the England & Wales figure.
614 114 plus 82 000 = 696k ish.
UNDER the 700k that a very bad flu would have given us this year given the aging boomers. We have NEVER locked down nation to prevent a bad flu yr at cost of millions of jobs

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett Now, a pandemic, we should have expected 15 % extra which they will CLAIM on previous years averages but that is CHEATING because those boomers are getting old and there are a shed load of them. So, lets take middle figure of a 'normal' flu yr expectations given the trajectory.

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett That would be 650k. So, that would be 730k ish. THAT is what a pandemic should have given at the minimum. This has been BAD, but no worse than a really bad flu yr say 68 type would have done. Now, you can argue all you like that lockdowns may have prevented this, but that has NOT

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett happened in Belarus where they had no lockdowns at all, or Sweden, at 155 deaths per mill and 550 deaths per mill respectively FAR lower than our deaths per mill with lockdowns at >1200. So sorry, I am NOT buying it. And, what is more, the MORE they compare it to previous years

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett averages when EVERY single projection of most western nations for this yr & coming 15 or so are on a STEEP upward trajectory. Look at births after 1942 it goes crazy and they are well in their 70s now. That is going to produce the same incline in deaths now and for next 15-20 yrs

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett eg look at US projected deaths curve will be the same there. So again there, unless its well in excess of 3.3 million a/c then its been within parameters of what a real bad flu would do. I think it will be c 3.1 million. So WHY, given health government and statisticians know this

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett full well, why are they comparing it with past years averages, which are way down that incline? I can only assume they are engaged in spin. And, what is worse, I have said since 1980 when I studied public health history at Uni this was coming. Each year it is going to get higher,

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett and that beds should be INCREASED. Instead, both Labour and Tories have cut 100k. That was irresponsible. Yet they increased nurses by over 100k? Hmmm. Get it yet? They are all complicit in failing to prepare and covering their arses. It is going to get worse yr on yr even if

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett Covid vanishes tomorrow. You may get the odd mild flu yr but then bang it will be worse when there's a moderate one as dry tinder. The incline is upwards, regardless of flu or pandemics, and any attempt to hide that is a LIE. IF these were deaths affecting all ages, then that

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett would be quite different but they aren't. We have destroyed the economy & millions of livelihoods, which WILL however manifest in major health burden to all ages in coming years, AND many cancer patients etc have died and will continue to die at home because they haven't got

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett treatment they need. It is all outrageous and when 20k deaths were from alarmist loons like Ferguson (who should be behind bars imho) creating panic that saw elderly thrown in to care homes where it predictably spread. Unreal everyone complicit in this crap narrative to arse

@CoralBlob @TheConstantCook @MichaelYeadon3 @Emmabarnett cover each other and justify draconian lockdowns which appear purely to be designed to get us used to authoritarianism and the Great bloody Reset