With US having vaccinated 9M+ and India starting it's vaccination plan soon (Jan 16th) some have started scaremongering about vaccines via alarmist WhatsApp forwards, FB/Twitter posts and other social media platforms
Most of the cases of severe reaction to vaccine have been mostly Anaphylaxis which is a severe, (in some cases potentially life-threatening allergic reaction) It can occur after exposure to allergen which can be peanut, shellfish, bee sting etc. or even contents of a vaccine.
CDC guidelines clearly state that patients should be monitored for anaphylaxis at vaccination sites and also prescribes protocols on what steps to take…
Recommendations include urging sites where vaccines are given to be ready to handle anaphylaxis cases, including by having epinephrine. People who have been vaccinated should stay to be monitored for 15 minutes if they have no history of allergy and 30 minutes if they do.
Based on initial vaccination data it is estimated that probability of suffering anaphylaxis is 11.1 per million i.e. 0.00111% (i.e. extremely rare condition)
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, head of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said "Right now, the known and potential benefits of the current Covid-19 vaccines outweigh the known and potential risks of getting Covid-19."
Now let's compare this with the data for the fatality rate from COVID-19 itself.
In a research paper published in the scientific journal Nature, a team of scientists led by Megan O’Driscoll and Henrik Salje collected data on COVID-19 deaths in 45 countries and nearly two dozen seroprevalence studies.…
Using this data, they determined sex- and age-specific IFR (Infection Fatality Rate).
Even when we compare the group with the lowest IFR who will get vaccinated right now (Note: vaccines are not still approved for use in kids) 20-24 group IFR at 0.006% is still ~5x higher than the anaphylaxis probability at 0.00111%
If you look at seniors (60-64 category) for e.g. their IFR at 0.456% is 410x the chances of an anaphylaxis event.
Putting aside COVID-19, If an elder was told that the probability of dying was 400 times higher than probability of having a severe reaction to a shot I am sure that most would chose the former over the later
Now every time you inject a foreign object into the human body, be it mRNA nanoparticle [Pfizer/Moderna], inactivated virus [Covaxin] or adenovirus-vector [AstraZaneca/CovidShield] via vaccination there is bound to be some reaction to it as the immune system reacts to it.
Some will have side effects which mostly go away after few days or instant intervention like epi -pen while a very very tiny sliver of vaccine recipients will unfortunately have much worse outcomes no doubt.
But once has to keep in mind the balance of the the risk associated with contracting severe COVID (which can cause long lasting damage to body including up to death) vs a reaction to the vaccine which is way rarer event.
As we go along in 2021 there will be constant bombardment of alarming news saying there was a case in country XYZ where following symptoms were observed which will cause panic.
But one has to remember that these are raw absolute numbers you are looking at and not percentages which matter more when vaccines are being administered to millions of folks around the world.
By the same logic as above if I say that there were x number of accidents on highway ABC it might appear to casual reader that highway ABC might be dangerous to travel on.
But when you look at % of accidents on that freeway vs overall traffic it will be very small %. There is always a non-zero probability of death when one drives a car but one does not consciously think of it all the time when they get on the highway in terms of raw accidents.
Everyone has to make a decision on their own on what their risk appetite is for contracting severe COVID vs adverse an reaction to vaccine. They can choose to take the vaccine or not but that decision should not be influenced by fearmongering clickbait type of media articles 🙏

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More from @MohalJoshi

11 Jan
1/n) Fantastic rearguard action by India to save the Test Match! Will be considered as one of India's best 4th innings fightbacks to save a Test Match!
2/n) The fact that India avoided defeat was commendable considering
1) #2, #3 & #4 fast bowlers injured
2) #1 fast bowling all rounder not fit to play Test Matches
3) #2 spinner broke his thumb
3) Batsmen @ #6 tore his hamstring
4) #1 Batsman on paternity leave
3/n) In the past many a Indian team would have folded up cheaply losing the test but this team showed its mental fortitude in such trying circumstances.
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov 20
1 Thread on President-Elect Biden and his statements in the U.S. Senate in May 1998 post Pokhran 2 nuclear tests
2 (Then) Senator Biden attended a Committee on Foreign Relations hearing in the U.S. Senate on May 13 1998 (2 days after the initial nuclear tests in Pokhran on May 11 1998)
3 Some interesting excerpts from his prepared statement on the Indian nuclear tests. Earlier part of his statement is mostly critical of India (like other speakers during the course of this hearing)
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18 Nov 20

1) Rezang La during 1962 India China war saw one of the most legendary “last stand” battles that the world has ever seen. Led by Major Shaitan Singh Bhati, 120 soldiers of the 13th Kumaon fought till the “last man last bullet”.

2) They fought heroically in freezing temperatures at approximately 17,000 feet killing a reported 1300+ Chinese soldiers.

3) Out of the 120 men of 13 Kumaon, that day 114 soldiers were killed , 5 were captured (who later escaped in Chinese captivity) & one was sent back to tell the tale of the unmatched valor at Rezang La.

Read 8 tweets
25 Jun 20
Based on the article below (by @praveenswami) on Indian patrol routes along the LAC in Depsang I created some maps for the same.
This is the general map of the important locations mentioned by @praveenswami in his article on Chinese incursions into Depsang Plains
Burtse Op is a small outpost on the DSDBO road connecting to the vital DBO & Karakorram Pass.
Lat Long 35.107040,78.050329
Read 12 tweets
1 Apr 20
Thread (Update 31 March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.
USA: 189,785 actual vs 189,137 (my projected no) [~0.3% delta]
INDIA: 1,619 actual vs 1,524 (my projected no) [~6.2% delta]
3 USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~476,000+
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
Read 7 tweets
30 Mar 20
Thread (Update 29 March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.
USA: 143,072 actual vs 147,701 (my projected no) [~3.1% delta]
INDIA: 1,139 actual vs 1,193 (my projected no) [~4.5% delta]
3 USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~354,000+
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.
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