Thread by @MohalJoshi

Thread (Update 29 March)
1 Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.

2
USA: 143,072 actual vs 147,701 (my projected no) [~3.1% delta]
INDIA: 1,139 actual vs 1,193 (my projected no) [~4.5% delta]

3 USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~354,000+
"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.

4 India: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be ~2400+
Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font.

5 In USA the % increase in new case has declined over past 4 days + in positive news that for the 1st time ever since early March that raw no of cases has declined day to day.

6 However as seen in the past temporary declines are fleeting which spike right back up. With the backlog of testing in multiple states & ramping up of testing this week could very well increase the number of new cases over next 7 days in theory.

7 India saw a 2nd consecutive day of decline in new cases. However there is worry that the numbers from any one of the several "hotspots" around the country could significantly jump making this decline a temporary thing.