Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Jan 14 to Jan 20-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.72), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

3/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.

4/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), at high levels of activity, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21 - Belgium is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while remaining at high levels, for 7 more days.

6/21. The UK is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at high levels, still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7.

7/21. Italy is increasing again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels of activity, plateauing in mortality at very high levels , for 7 more days.

8/21. Germany is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), at high levels, increasing in mortality at very high to alarming (by the weekend) levels, for 7 more days.

9/21. France is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

10/21. Portugal is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.20), at high to very high (by next mid-week) levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

11/21. Ireland will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.24), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at high to very high (by next mid-week) levels, for 7 more days.

12/21. Tunisia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. South Africa is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at high levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission.

14/21. Israel is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality although at high levels, for 7 more days.

16/21. Japan is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.20), out of its safety zone, at medium levels, with remaining low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.77), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96), at medium levels, increasing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1349733153720594432?s=20

New forecast for 4 provinces in the thread.

19/21. The US will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1349737013004574728?s=20

New forecast for 7 states in the thread above.

20/21. Brazil is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Uruguay is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), at high levels, plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.

23/21.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0