1/21. Jan 14 to Jan 20-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.72), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
4/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.90), at high levels of activity, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
5/21 - Belgium is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while remaining at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
6/21. The UK is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at high levels, still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7. ImageImage
7/21. Italy is increasing again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels of activity, plateauing in mortality at very high levels , for 7 more days. ImageImage
8/21. Germany is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.06), at high levels, increasing in mortality at very high to alarming (by the weekend) levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
9/21. France is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, plateauing at very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
10/21. Portugal is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.20), at high to very high (by next mid-week) levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
11/21. Ireland will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.24), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at high to very high (by next mid-week) levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
12/21. Tunisia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
13/21. South Africa is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at high levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission. ImageImage
14/21. Israel is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality although at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
16/21. Japan is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.20), out of its safety zone, at medium levels, with remaining low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.77), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
18/21. Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.96), at medium levels, increasing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

New forecast for 4 provinces in the thread. ImageImage
19/21. The US will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

New forecast for 7 states in the thread above. ImageImage
20/21. Brazil is experiencing an increase again in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
21/21. Uruguay is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), at high levels, plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days. ImageImage
23/21.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

16 Jan
1/9 - “In the second wave we acquired much more evidence that schoolchildren are almost equally, if not more infected by SARS-CoV-2 than others.”
google.ch/amp/s/www.wsj.…
2/9 - “The problem is not that schools are unsafe for children,” Mr. Boris Johnson said last week. “The problem is schools may nonetheless act as vectors for transmission, causing the virus to spread between households.”
3/9 - “An antibody survey conducted by researchers in Geneva in May and December, using thousands of random samples, found that children of age 6 to 18 were getting infected as often as young adults. The study has yet to be peer reviewed.”
Read 9 tweets
16 Jan
1/21. Jan 16 to Jan 22-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.67), at medium levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.

(more details in the link above) ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
16 Jan
1/9 - Switzerland -Jan 16 to 22-
The #COVID19 epidemic activity is improving in most cantons and mortality, although at high levels, is decreasing.
7 cantons detailed.
Data: zh.ch/de/politik-sta…
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Valais is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), while remaining at high level of activity, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/9 - Geneva will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.98), at high levels, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
15 Jan
1/21. Jan 15 to Jan 21-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Denmark is quickly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.61), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
14 Jan
1/7 - “People who have already contracted coronavirus are as protected against reinfection as those who have received the best #COVID19 vaccines, according to a survey of 20,000 UK healthcare workers, the largest study in the world so far.”
ft.com/content/929ef3…
2/7 - “Public Health England regularly tested two matched groups of volunteers between June and November — 6,000 health workers who had previously been infected with coronavirus and 14,000 who had not.”
3/7 - “A comparison of infections in the 2 groups found that prior infection provided at least 83% protection against reinfection. It gave better than 94% protection against symptomatic #COVID19 , matching the figures for the most effective #COVID19 vaccines.”
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
1/10 - USA. Jan 14 to Jan 20-
The #COVID19 situation is plateauing at high levels of activity, and very high levels of mortality.
9 states detailed and analysis in:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/10 - Massachusetts will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/10 - Vermont is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets

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