1/21. Jan 15 to Jan 21-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/21. Denmark is quickly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.61), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.
4/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.88), at high levels of activity, slowly decreasing in mortality too, from very high to high (by early next week) levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/21. The UK is starting to slowly land towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at high levels, while still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7.
6/21 - Belgium is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while remaining at high levels, for 7 more days.
7/21. Italy is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.01), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality, while still at very high levels , for 7 more days.
8/21. Germany is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at high levels, increasing too in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
9/21. France is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.09), at high levels, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.
10/21. Portugal is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.19), at high to very high (by next mid-week) levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
11/21. Ireland will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.22), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at high to very high (by the weekend) levels, for 7 more days.
12/21. Tunisia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
13/21. South Africa is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.05), at high levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission.
14/21. Israel is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.16), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality although at high levels, for 7 more days.
16/21. Japan is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.17), out of its safety zone, at medium levels, with remaining low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.76), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/21. Canada is starting to slowly land towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), at medium levels, plateauing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

Forecast for 4 provinces in the thread.
19/21. The US will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.02), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Forecast for 7 states in the thread above
20/21. Brazil is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.08), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
21/21. Uruguay is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), at high levels, plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.
22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.
23/21.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti.
24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

16 Jan
1/9 - “In the second wave we acquired much more evidence that schoolchildren are almost equally, if not more infected by SARS-CoV-2 than others.”
google.ch/amp/s/www.wsj.…
2/9 - “The problem is not that schools are unsafe for children,” Mr. Boris Johnson said last week. “The problem is schools may nonetheless act as vectors for transmission, causing the virus to spread between households.”
3/9 - “An antibody survey conducted by researchers in Geneva in May and December, using thousands of random samples, found that children of age 6 to 18 were getting infected as often as young adults. The study has yet to be peer reviewed.”
Read 9 tweets
16 Jan
1/21. Jan 16 to Jan 22-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.67), at medium levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.

(more details in the link above) ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
16 Jan
1/9 - Switzerland -Jan 16 to 22-
The #COVID19 epidemic activity is improving in most cantons and mortality, although at high levels, is decreasing.
7 cantons detailed.
Data: zh.ch/de/politik-sta…
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Valais is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), while remaining at high level of activity, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/9 - Geneva will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.98), at high levels, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
14 Jan
1/7 - “People who have already contracted coronavirus are as protected against reinfection as those who have received the best #COVID19 vaccines, according to a survey of 20,000 UK healthcare workers, the largest study in the world so far.”
ft.com/content/929ef3…
2/7 - “Public Health England regularly tested two matched groups of volunteers between June and November — 6,000 health workers who had previously been infected with coronavirus and 14,000 who had not.”
3/7 - “A comparison of infections in the 2 groups found that prior infection provided at least 83% protection against reinfection. It gave better than 94% protection against symptomatic #COVID19 , matching the figures for the most effective #COVID19 vaccines.”
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
1/21. Jan 14 to Jan 20-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.72), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 24 tweets
14 Jan
1/10 - USA. Jan 14 to Jan 20-
The #COVID19 situation is plateauing at high levels of activity, and very high levels of mortality.
9 states detailed and analysis in:
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/10 - Massachusetts will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/10 - Vermont is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets

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