2/9 - Valais is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), while remaining at high level of activity, plateauing at high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/9 - Geneva will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.98), at high levels, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/9 - Vaud (Lausanne) will be landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), from high to medium (by early this week) levels, with medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/9 - Zürich is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.67), at medium levels of activity, with remaining high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/9 - Basel Stadt is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.68),at medium levels of activity, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
7/9 - Bern is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.58), which is foreseen to be reached at the end of the upcoming week, with remaining very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/9 - Ticino is rapidly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.53), which is foreseen to be reached at the end of the upcoming week, still plateauing at alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
9/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following @KristenN_06 and @elisa_manetti
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop 4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
10/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/9 - “In the second wave we acquired much more evidence that schoolchildren are almost equally, if not more infected by SARS-CoV-2 than others.” google.ch/amp/s/www.wsj.…
2/9 - “The problem is not that schools are unsafe for children,” Mr. Boris Johnson said last week. “The problem is schools may nonetheless act as vectors for transmission, causing the virus to spread between households.”
3/9 - “An antibody survey conducted by researchers in Geneva in May and December, using thousands of random samples, found that children of age 6 to 18 were getting infected as often as young adults. The study has yet to be peer reviewed.”
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.67), at medium levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.
2/21. Denmark is quickly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.61), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.
1/7 - “People who have already contracted coronavirus are as protected against reinfection as those who have received the best #COVID19 vaccines, according to a survey of 20,000 UK healthcare workers, the largest study in the world so far.” ft.com/content/929ef3…
2/7 - “Public Health England regularly tested two matched groups of volunteers between June and November — 6,000 health workers who had previously been infected with coronavirus and 14,000 who had not.”
3/7 - “A comparison of infections in the 2 groups found that prior infection provided at least 83% protection against reinfection. It gave better than 94% protection against symptomatic #COVID19 , matching the figures for the most effective #COVID19 vaccines.”
2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.72), at medium levels of activity, with still increasing very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/21. Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.
2/10 - Massachusetts will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.85), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/10 - Vermont is experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.29), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.