Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Jan 16 to Jan 22-
Our #COVID19 daily epidemic forecasting for 209 countries/territories. Vaccine figures per country in summary tables.
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Denmark is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.67), at medium levels of activity, still increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

3/21. Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.80), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while still at high levels, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1350376929145331712?s=20

(more details in the link above)

4/21. The Netherlands is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), at high levels of activity, slowly decreasing in mortality while remaining at very high levels, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), at medium level of activity, while still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

6/21. The UK is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.99), at high levels, still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
3rd Lockdown due to increase in transmission with the variant B.1.1.7.

7/21. Italy is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.0), at high levels of activity, decreasing in mortality, while still at very high levels , for 7 more days.

8/21 - Belgium is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.03), at medium levels of activity, decreasing in mortality while remaining at high levels, for 7 more days.

9/21. France is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at high levels, while decreasing in mortality, still at high levels, for 7 more days.

10/21. Ireland will experience a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.10), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

11/21. Portugal is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.11), at high levels, increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.

12/21. Tunisia is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), at high levels, with very high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

13/21. South Africa is succeeding to take over control of its #COVID19 second wave (R-eff=0.98), at high levels of activity, while still increasing in mortality at alarming levels, for 7 more days.
Lockdown changes due to new variant suspected to cause increase in transmission.

14/21. Israel is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.14), at very high levels, increasing in mortality at very high levels, for 7 more days.

15/21. Russia will be slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95), at medium levels of activity, still plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

16/21. Japan is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.12), out of its safety zone, at medium levels, increasing in mortality although remaining at low levels, for 7 more days.

17/21. South Korea will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.79), with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Canada is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.96), at medium levels, plateauing in mortality at high level, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1349733153720594432?s=20

Forecast for 4 provinces in the thread.

19/21. The US is increasing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.04), at high levels, with increasingly alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1349737013004574728?s=20

Forecast for 7 states in the thread above

20/21. Brazil is experiencing an increase in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.07), at high levels, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Uruguay is experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=1.13), at high levels, plateauing in mortality at high levels, for 7 more days.

22/21. Australia and New Zealand are among the safest countries in the world with regard to #COVID19 epidemic activity. They both remain for the past months within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, and will remain so, for at least 7 more days.

23/21.
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100
Read forecasting for other countries by following:
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti
.

24/21.
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0