Willy Woo Profile picture
14 Jan, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The world has 47m millionaires, 71% of them live in the US or EU, there's only 14.9m BTC in circulation, and only 4.1m BTC are liquid and therefore able to be bought.

HNW individuals just got notified they need an allocation, IMO this is the reason why BTC rocketed past 23k.
Whale spawning season is here. (1000 BTC or more).

Very high net worth individuals are coming in, in droves.

This cycle is unlike any we've seen before. Image
On-chain study of BTC that is liquid by @glassnode

Supply of BTC in circulation uses current supply minus 3.7m lost coins by Chainalysis
And BTW, those 4.1m coins that are liquid and available is dropping really quickly ever since COVID bootstrapped this round of money printing. Image

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More from @woonomic

11 Jan
Buys on Coinbase are not completing. Coinbase is $350 lower than other exchanges right now, it's throwing off derivative indexes and likely impacting trade algos.
Buying demand is not coming in on Coinbase because buys are not registering. Coinbase price is used in a basket of exchange prices to get an index price that futures markets trade on. Gives a false bearish signal to algos, which will trigger further sell off.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jan
BTC was consolidating between $39k-$42k in a region where it was trading 30% above the estimated fundamental floor.

When trading this high above the floor, there's plenty of room for volatility.

The action started when this support line broke.
Derivatives did not liquidate, there was no collapse in the number of traded (open interest) contracts. Instead what we saw was a sell off on spot markets.

BTC was sent into exchanges (red line), and shortly thereafter the net flow of USDC started moving out of exchanges
USDC is now starting to flow back in, looks like most of the sell off is over.

The greater on-chain environment remains bullish. This looks like a really healthy consolidation to me.

Data fits a narrative of weak hands being shaken out.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
I want to put to bed this BS article propagated by Bloomberg saying BTC is highly concentrated.

This is the breakdown from @glassnode data:
- 13% exchanges (130m+ users)
- 10% miners (includes Satoshi's coins)
- 56% non-whale HODLers
- 21% whales and custody providers
This is the supply breakdown by participants. This is worked out by forensically clustering wallet addresses belonging to individual entities. 56% are holders below 1000 BTC.

Whales are defined as holding greater than 1000 BTC. Image
Balances on exchanges. There's about 130m individual ID-verified unique users on exchanges right now as a lower bound estimate. Image
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
Let me indulge in a story...

Once upon a time there was a genius called Satoshi, this anonymous character laid down a block, it was called the Genius Block, but we we spell it wrong to this day.
Then along came your standard noob who believed in freedom, we know this because he went by the name NewLibertyStandard.

He created a site to buy and sell Bitcoins.

On his site, he priced Bitcoin on electricity.

The price went up, the price went down.
Then one day, he changed the pricing system.

BTC was no longer priced at the cost of mining.

He priced it by DEMAND and SUPPLY.

Geeks and legendary futurists, bought and sold the rarest commodity on the Internet for pennies.

Price teleported upwards.
Read 9 tweets
29 Dec 20
The growth in capital flowing into BTC is now equivalent to Apr 2017 of last cycle. The early bull phase is over, the main phase has started; it's come early.

Realised cap estimates the capital invested into #Bitcoin. Its slope = the rate of capital influx (as % of its cap).
TOTAL INVESTED:
$170b - the total capital Bitcoin is storing at the price it was invested

INFLOWS:
$15b - During the re-accumulation phase of Mar - Oct
$50b - Since the October rally
$10b - In the last 7 days after @michael_saylor tweeted his $650m purchase was complete.
While the outside world is bewildered by the Bitcoin price rise, thinking it's probably a speculative bubble. Few understand with a blockchain we can measure the capital flows with precision and give answers instead of narratives.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec 20
This rally to 28k was strongly supported by spot buying. It's not a zone where I would expect a blow-off top. It's no more overheated than when we consolidated at 22k-24k.

NVT Premium can be read as an estimate of how overheated we are above "long term investor valuation".
NVT Price can be used as an estimate of the price floor supported by long term investors. It's 17k and rising fast. Lately the best speculative sellers have managed is 10% above this, so IMO it's unlikely we'll see prices below 20k again.
Here's a chart to give you an idea of the investor activity during this latest rally. Quite close to the buying activity that was responsible for snapping up the COVID white swan bottom.

(That buying impulse took BTC from $5k to $9k.)
Read 4 tweets

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