Willy Woo Profile picture
19 Mar, 6 tweets, 3 min read
A tale of 3 charts...

From March 2020, #Bitcoin undergoes steep and continued supply shock in sync to USD money printing.

1) Speculative inventory on exchanges deplete.
2) Supply held by speculative "weak hands" deplete.

These are the coins held by wallet users that have a history of selling coins.

This is conservative as BTC held by "strong hands" using exchanges as custody will be classified as "highly liquid" / "weak hands" in this chart.
3) USD money printing took a steep inflationary jump starting March 2020.
On-chain data: @glassnode
USD M2 supply: @stlouisfed
IMO what's happening is US institutions and HNWI are scooping up the available coins from weak hands and locking it up as strong HODLers in response to monetary inflation.

Coinbase BTC supply dropping off a cliff suggests US institutional buying there.

This is insanely bullish of course. Strong hands have been buying every dip which has been driving price steeply upwards since Q4 2020.

Red bars track the number of coins moving from weak hands to strong hands each day.

(@glassnode chart)

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More from @woonomic

16 Mar
Appreciate the dialog @ki_young_ju.

1) me: Whales dumping Gemini is bogus data
2) @glassnode: it's an internal transfer
3) @cryptoquant_com: it's an external transfer
4) @coinmetrics: it's BlockFi

Me: warning 28,300 traders of whales dumping needs fact-checking.
Full chrono breakdown of events as they came to me.

TLDR; Ultimately we have a responsibility to fact-check and take all due care before releasing data.
Markets dumped immediately after @cryptoquant_com issued a warning of Whales dumping into Gemini.

It's actually the second time in a month that this occurrence has happened.
Read 11 tweets
16 Mar
The @cryptoquant_com "data error" debate.

Did a whale send in 18k of BTC into Gemini to dump the markets? Or was it a data error?

This alert was sent out to 28,300 traders warning of whale dumping. Speculators sold off minutes later.
This chart shows Gemini prices vs the average of Coinbase and Binance.

When the warning was sent out to traders, Gemini price did not dip relative to others which is what dumping there would look like. In fact it rose indicating net purchasing on that exchange.
Gemini trades $100m-$200m per day; that's insufficient liquidity to absorb a $1b sell. Price moves 2% on a $2m order there.

It makes no sense sell on Gemini.

Data: @coingecko
Read 7 tweets
30 Jan
While we are in the first great consolidation of the 2021 bull market, here's a bunch of charts to get the feel of where we are in this bull cycle.

👇
SOPR tracks profit-taken when coins being sold. It hit the 1.0 line which means we completely reset. To go lower we'd need to have investors sell at a loss. This would need a bear phase (that's is NOT on the cards with the current setup) Image
Here's how it looks in the longer time frame (1 week SOPR). Pretty close to a full reset, Elon kind of screwed with it, bounced us early. Image
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul 20
Commenters didn’t like these objective data points and missed the point that stablecoins are increasingly used for transmission of funds and securitising trade settlement.

It’s not just used for hedging from bearish crypto price action like the old days.
Bitcoin’s cap is tiny next to demands of global remittance and trade. Here you get a sense of just how small and early Bitcoin in its life cycle compared to where it needs to be to serve the finance world in a meaningful sense.
On a markets analysis note, some of us have been using USDT cap vs BTC cap as an oversold / overbought fundamental macro indicator, this signal is likely to be less effective in future given the changing use cases of Tether.
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov 19
A thread on altcoins.

They are nuanced. We have:
-Protocol coins
-Utility tokens
-Security tokens
-Non-fungible tokens

But to an investor, there's only 2 types of altcoins. Oscillators and Degenerators. You can spot them on this chart of the entire market.

/1 Image
The vast majority of alt-coins are Degens. Their price chart has a measurable half-life, like radioactive decay. Plotted on a log chart, it's a straight line down. (This one is Namecoin, a promising coin of its era, there's over 2000 examples like this).

/2 Image
A handful are oscillators. Oscillators are proving SoV properties.

To qualify they need to keep up with BTCUSD gains. To find them, plot their BTC value. It must oscillate around a horizontal line, for at least one full bull-bear cycle (around 4yrs). More cycles are better.

/3 Image
Read 8 tweets
24 Jul 19
A nice collation of research, facts and figures, on the topic of Bitcoin energy consumption published by the International Energy Agency.

Some of my key takeaways in this thread...
Bitcoin's annual energy use is 69.6TWh (upper bound)

With a bit of math, lets see how big this is...

Global energy consumption rate is 18TW, thus Bitcoin consumes 232 mins of the year's energy demand. (69.6TWh/18TW*60mins=232mins)

In other words 0.044% of the world's energy. Image
Interestingly I see Bitcoin currently uses the same amount of energy as the Internet did in 2016.

70TWh per year.

forbes.com/sites/christop…
Read 8 tweets

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