Doing RE underwriting at high valuations after a 11-year bull run tells you exactly what you need to hear.

RISK is here!

Whether your focus on the unleveraged yield on total cost or development feasibility studies — it's getting ridiculously hard to find anything attractive.
One London deal from earlier today.

Loss-making propositions start popping up everywhere as the market becomes overpriced.

As my mentor used to say: "Tiho, are you going to work for free?"

It wasn't like this 5 years ago, while almost every deal worked 8-9 years ago!
A deal from Prague, also from today (in Czech Krona).

Agents are in la-la land & this owner believes money grows on trees.

Yes, it is an amazing property in a great location — but you buy it, do the hard work & exit at realistic market comps with a €1.5 million loss.
And finally, from Brisbane (AUS). All three cities were modeled without any debt, the way we like it.

Low interest rates aren't the reason to buy real estate.

They are the cause of its overvaluation & therefore the reason to sell real estate.

"Are you going to work for free?"

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More from @TihoBrkan

22 Dec 20
1/ Daniel Ades writes:

"What makes a country wealthier is not the valuation of the companies going higher, but companies producing a greater quantity or potentially more valuable products, which is generally reflected in rising profits or sales."
2/ "This is why we tend to associate the rising value of stocks with a greater net worth as a stock market generally grows in line with increased profits. The same is true for an entire economy."
3/ "It is the economy’s ability to generate more value that makes it richer, not its abstract measure of money. If the government intervenes to ensure a buoyant stock market or fewer bond defaults, it is not creating wealth: it is simply removing accurate price discovery."
Read 5 tweets
19 Dec 20
Saving is one of the most important concepts in personal finance.

However, there is a major difference between a healthy saving rate & extreme frugality with delayed gratification.

The latter means having money when it’s utility becomes almost useless (only for medical bills).
Also:

• utility of money declines as we get older

• retired people have mental blocks withdrawing their nest egg

• delaying gratification too long can end up with regrets later on

• when 65, you might have the money, but you won’t have the stamina (look @ the meme)
Read 5 tweets
17 Dec 20
1/ US Dollar Thread.

The medium-term technical picture shows the bull market (uptrend) — which started in the 2008/11 period — has come to an end with a recent break down of an important trend line support.

The trend is now clearly down.
2/ Why is this important?

Since President Nixon took off the Gold standard, floating the $USD in 1971, it has gone through 3 secular bull & bear markets.

History shows that currencies enter multi-year trends & the probability is high $USD is entering a multi-year downtrend now.
3/ What does this mean for global investors?

• exit $USD denominated assets
• increase stock exposure Asia Pacific & EM countries
• focus on small & value, not large & growth
• become a real estate LP in EU & UK deals
• hold cash reserves in Singapore Dollar & Swiss Franc
Read 7 tweets
16 Dec 20
1/ If you are getting sick and tired of the same old pitch decks from the USA,

Which just about every man and his dog are talking about,

And go something along the lines of:

"4.5% CAP rate, we will bump up the rents, blah blah blah"

then should you consider the UK market.
2/ This is where we have been investing over the last few years and achieving fantastic rates of return.

The narrative on the surface is bad with Brexit & loss of confidence.

Bank funding is as depressed as the GFC of 2009, basically "blood on the streets" kind of a scenario.
3/ Lack of funding supply, means demand for capital is willing to pay far higher rates of compensation for the relative risk taken.

In the construction finance area we operate & invest in, we are noticing the following:

Senior loans @ 8-11%
Mezz loans @ 15-22%
JV equity @ 25%+
Read 6 tweets
13 Dec 20
1/ Sentiment & Valuations Thread! 👇🏽

Citi’s panic/euphoria model goes above 1.6X.

Last time that happened was in the year 2000.

Stock market fell 3 years in the row, halving in value. No positive returns for 12 years were registered.
2/ US broad stock market has registered 4X book value recently, which is the most overvalued reading since the Dot Com bubble.

This is very extreme.

However, many growth companies don't have tangible assets anymore, so it's worth looking at many indicators...
3/ ...especially price to sales which has recently registered a record reading above 2.7X.

Today's valuations are very similar to the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Read 18 tweets
11 Dec 20
Philosopher Karl Marx & his utopian views of a society where you do the work you can do and take for yourself all the things of necessity you require were pretty crazy in hindsight.

But nowhere as crazy as today's market participants, who believe prosperity can be maintained...
...and controlled by governments & central banks — which will never allow another major downturn or recession to occur on their watch.

If printing money out of thin air is such a great solution in the first place, why do we have taxes? Why do we aim at increasing productivity?
Why don't we just spend all of our time at the beach, or in the ski resorts?

Without any work needed and always waiting for a new batch of freshly printed warm & crisp dollar notes to stimulate our over-indebted economies and pay for our never-ending deficits?
Read 4 tweets

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