Doing RE underwriting at high valuations after a 11-year bull run tells you exactly what you need to hear.
RISK is here!
Whether your focus on the unleveraged yield on total cost or development feasibility studies — it's getting ridiculously hard to find anything attractive.
One London deal from earlier today.
Loss-making propositions start popping up everywhere as the market becomes overpriced.
As my mentor used to say: "Tiho, are you going to work for free?"
It wasn't like this 5 years ago, while almost every deal worked 8-9 years ago!
A deal from Prague, also from today (in Czech Krona).
Agents are in la-la land & this owner believes money grows on trees.
Yes, it is an amazing property in a great location — but you buy it, do the hard work & exit at realistic market comps with a €1.5 million loss.
And finally, from Brisbane (AUS). All three cities were modeled without any debt, the way we like it.
Low interest rates aren't the reason to buy real estate.
They are the cause of its overvaluation & therefore the reason to sell real estate.
"Are you going to work for free?"
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"What makes a country wealthier is not the valuation of the companies going higher, but companies producing a greater quantity or potentially more valuable products, which is generally reflected in rising profits or sales."
2/ "This is why we tend to associate the rising value of stocks with a greater net worth as a stock market generally grows in line with increased profits. The same is true for an entire economy."
3/ "It is the economy’s ability to generate more value that makes it richer, not its abstract measure of money. If the government intervenes to ensure a buoyant stock market or fewer bond defaults, it is not creating wealth: it is simply removing accurate price discovery."
The medium-term technical picture shows the bull market (uptrend) — which started in the 2008/11 period — has come to an end with a recent break down of an important trend line support.
The trend is now clearly down.
2/ Why is this important?
Since President Nixon took off the Gold standard, floating the $USD in 1971, it has gone through 3 secular bull & bear markets.
History shows that currencies enter multi-year trends & the probability is high $USD is entering a multi-year downtrend now.
3/ What does this mean for global investors?
• exit $USD denominated assets
• increase stock exposure Asia Pacific & EM countries
• focus on small & value, not large & growth
• become a real estate LP in EU & UK deals
• hold cash reserves in Singapore Dollar & Swiss Franc
Philosopher Karl Marx & his utopian views of a society where you do the work you can do and take for yourself all the things of necessity you require were pretty crazy in hindsight.
But nowhere as crazy as today's market participants, who believe prosperity can be maintained...
...and controlled by governments & central banks — which will never allow another major downturn or recession to occur on their watch.
If printing money out of thin air is such a great solution in the first place, why do we have taxes? Why do we aim at increasing productivity?
Why don't we just spend all of our time at the beach, or in the ski resorts?
Without any work needed and always waiting for a new batch of freshly printed warm & crisp dollar notes to stimulate our over-indebted economies and pay for our never-ending deficits?