Oregon is poised to gain a House seat for the first time since 1982. Dems face a dilemma: with so many of their votes concentrated in Portland, how can they safely stretch their 4D-1R lead into 5D-1R? Well, here's one creative way they might try:
In the hypothetical above, all districts except #OR02 voted for Biden by 10%+. But, the new #OR06 extends from southeast Portland to Umatilla. And, #OR04 crosses the Cascades from Eugene to Bend. I'm not so sure courts would look fondly on this map?
The crazy thing about Oregon: if you were drawing a map w/ compactness principles as your only goal, you might end up with a map where 4/6 districts voted for Trump in '16, as shown below:
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It's worth considering why Dems have succeeded in Georgia but failed in another state with a fairly similar demographic profile that's extremely important for their long-term prospects of winning power: North Carolina.
First of all, Georgia is simply a more "major metro" state. The Atlanta metro area now casts 59% of the state's votes, whereas the Charlotte/Research Triangle areas *combined* cast only 42% of North Carolina's votes.
NC is simply a more small town/rural state.
Second, whereas Dems "bottomed out" w/ rural GA whites a few years ago, they've continued to backslide w/ rural voters in NC - esp. in the Sandhills region - canceling out their suburban gains.
GA doesn't have an equivalent Robeson Co., which voted 58% Obama '12 & 59% Trump '20.
The bottom line in Ossoff/Perdue: Perdue is outperforming Trump in suburbs w/ lots of country club type Rs (no surprise).
But he's underperforming Trump in heavily Black areas, where there's a slight but significant drop-off in White turnout relative to Black turnout. #GASEN
Overall, it "augurs" (as @Nate_Cohn would say) for an Ossoff advantage at the end of the day. But it's not in territory where it's assured yet, in my view. #GASEN
Here are the big pro-Ossoff margin swings vs. Biden '20 so far in counties that look near fully reported (10k+ vote counties only):
1. Clayton +6.1 2. Liberty +5.0 3. Rockdale +4.2 4. Douglas +3.9 5. Baldwin +2.7 6. Paulding +2.1
FWIW, I'm still very skeptical Hart/Dems can find 218 votes in the House, a partisan body, to overturn Iowa's state-certified results - especially when Hart never challenged the recount procedures in *court* during/after the recount. #IA02
On DCCC-facilitated press call, an IA reporter asks Hart attorney Marc Elias why they chose to take issue w/ some ballots before the House but not others. Elias says identifying these 22 ballots "made the cleanest presentation" - also notes they include four ballots not for Hart.
On call, Hart campaign says Hart has *not* been in touch with Pelosi/Dem leadership and that whether Miller-Meeks (R) is seated on 1/3 is ultimately up to the House Administration Committee. #IA02
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever.
Here's the breakdown of Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel counties won by past new presidents (all based on today's store locations):
1992: Clinton 60% WF, 40% CB = 20% gap
2000: Bush 43% WF, 75% CB = 32% gap
2008: Obama 78% WF, 36% CB = 42% gap
2016: Trump 22% WF, 74% CB = 52% gap
In this context, it's a remarkable achievement that Biden was able to reverse some Dem erosion in Cracker Barrel counties (i.e. places that tend to decide Midwest swing states).
There's no guarantee a future Dem w/ a different profile could hold the line in Erie, Saginaw, etc.