1/n Language is powerful, because it gives hints on what is going on. I am in my home town, a 150k inhabitants city that has been isolated by government for a long time. Given my parents live here I have been tracking COVID here from early on.
2/n I even know the city infectious disease public official here and we exchanged notes on the early outbreak when there was just 2 deaths. Our estimation back then was between 120 to 150 deaths by the end of it.
3/n Fast forward to today, if we use the conservative method used by the WHO and CDC for correcting detected and actual infections it gives that 120k were infected. Remember 3rd world testing infrastructure.
4/n Current death toll excluding suspected (not confirmed) is 122 as of today. But then I come to why language is powerful. In small towns everybody knows everybody, and the who knows who chains are pretty short on average.
5/n I have overhead this conservation several times:
"hey, how you doing?".
"Great and you?"
"Awesome. When did you get it?"
"November, and you?"
"July I was among the first ones"
"hey, how you doing?".
"Great and you?"
"Awesome. When did you get it?"
"November, and you?"
"July I was among the first ones"
6/n Language is powerful. Here people don't ask others if they had COVID they all ask when. So that is a sign that its done and people know it. Anyone willing to calculate the uniform implicit IFR? 
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