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Raoul Pal Profile picture
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18 Jan, 3 tweets, 1 min read
There is always a bear case for EVERY asset (cyclical and/or secular) including BTC. The ONLY thing that matters is WHEN the bear case will change market dynamics. That is the ENTIRE investment game. Making bear cases is only a small part of the game. Same is true of bull cases.
I personally don't see any threat to the bull market in BTC at this point, or any risk remotely near, but everyone needs to understand ALL risks to assess their own probabilities and risk tolerance. Even S2F is cyclical.

Everything else is FUD. Now, positive reflexivity is king.
#irresponsiblylong BTC and ETH. My split is now 70/30.

Good luck and I actively filter the FUD noise as it's getting deafening right now...

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
8 Jan
There is a phenomena that I have observed over the last 30 years in markets...

The New Year Head Fake. 1/2
Hedge funds and asset managers start the year with zero P&L and new risk buckets to allocate.

After a 2-week break they want to get some trades on their shiny new books.

Wall St tends to publish a bunch of consensus Year Ahead trades. So, people pile in...
Then, once everyone is in, the trend often reverses or has a massive correction, taking everyone back to flat or negative on the year and they begin the P&L grind again...

I write about this almost every year in GMI to warn people not to pile into new risks in Jan and wait
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jan
Ok, looks like I need to explain this tweet...
Its just a thought but...

Let's say there is a $100bn of institutional money ready to come into BTC in the next 6 months and $XX bn retail.

Crypto is impossible to buy for some and hard(ish) for others.
Then imagine an equity is launched that is worth $60bn on the grey market. If you are a fund manager, then why not just own Coinbase to get exposure? Easy.

No, it ain't bitcoin, but it will move sort of like it and you don't have to beg your investment committee or trustees.
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
7 Jan
Crypto Bomb:

Ok, I'm leaking some GMI early... (not published yet - tomorrow a.m.)

I will eventually publish in Real Vision too (this article only). I push back strongly the Pfeffer view and the "shitcoin" view.

It's all Metcalfe's Law, baby... and ETH = BTC, like it or not.
You are your behavior....
Network value...(Metcalfe's Law)
Read 14 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
3 Jan
While everyone seems to celebrate every single new BTC high, let me remind you of where we are going...

Nothing is a Law of Nature but the log-regression trend since inception makes sense to me contextually.

I think the risk is people UNDERSHOOT in their price targets. 1/
The Halving runs tend to get between 1 and 2 standard deviations overbought versus trend, and it occurs usually around 18 months.

This would give a rough price target between $400k and $1.2m by end of 2021 (not an exact science, but context).
It also ALWAYS climbs a wall of fear - in 2017 it was forks (they threw me off the trend back then). This time it feels like regulation and Tether/stable coins will create the wall of fear that the market climbs, throwing weak hands off.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
31 Dec 20
Happy New Year!

I just wanted to say thank you for a hell of a year here on Twitter.

We've all hung out together, debated, bounced off new ideas, bickered, trolled, celebrated each others victories and encouraged each other and tried to add value to the community.
We've even had fun nights on Friday night booze Twitter (Asia/Oz/NZ Saturday hangover Twitter). We've both kept each other sane over 2020 and driven each other mad, like a family. We've also enjoyed making fun of each other too and not taking ourselves too seriously.
I've tried really hard to add value where I could because that is what creates a vibrant community, where everyone tries to add value in their own way.

I've nailed some really big macro themes and got the dollar totally wrong too, but overall its been a banner year.
Read 16 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
30 Dec 20
We are at the stage where people I really respect - mean reversionists, value players and rationalists are urging caution in bitcoin.
However, I think reflexivity here is stronger than they can ever possibly imagine. There will be sharp sell offs on negative new and also on no news but people will hope for even better entry on sharp dips and miss it. 1/
And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity.

This is the most reflexive set up I’ve ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay.

I won’t be easy to hold on.
Read 5 tweets

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