We are at the stage where people I really respect - mean reversionists, value players and rationalists are urging caution in bitcoin.
However, I think reflexivity here is stronger than they can ever possibly imagine. There will be sharp sell offs on negative new and also on no news but people will hope for even better entry on sharp dips and miss it. 1/
And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity.
This is the most reflexive set up I’ve ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay.
I won’t be easy to hold on.
It also won’t be easy to know when to get off...
And therein lies the problem for all of us who aren’t aiming yet for hyper-bitcoinalisation.
Maybe the big test will come from stable coins, regulation or just the wall of fear, or maybe even harder, no corrections.
Have a take some off the table plan at some point and also a run the rest of it to the moon plan.
It’s still early days yet however.... too early for a plan except buy any dip.
Same for ETH. Maybe even more so...
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Tokens are just real-time trading VC bets. If you owned early seed investments with real-time mark to market you'd see the exact same. 80% go to zero, 19% add value and 1% make all the money. Real time marks freak people out.
If you real time marked any VC investment you see it go to near zero numerous times (for Real Vision, probably 6 times). The value comes from adoption and eventually revenues as business models adapt.Most dont survive, its normal and is capitalism.
Thinking everything is a scam because its not BTC is simply ludicrous. It is like taking a snapshot of early VC bets and writing everything off as a zero because its not Google.
Apples and oranges.
The actual money is in the numbers game - Pareto's Law.
Thought: Let's say a start up, like $FB back in the day, raised funding on a dodgy idea, let's say they got traction and the idea didnt look so dodgy so they raised more cash via equity but lets say they agree to an limit on the equity issuance. Is that wrong? XRP (no view).
So, right or wrong?
It is not so clear to me, with my limited knowledge at a macro level....
I also understand Ripple issued equity but Im not sure how totally different this is if you replace the worlds "cryptocurrency" with shares.
All thoughts appreciated. As I said, I have zero view but am not sure of the controversy at a macro level. XRP is being used at least...
So, if the hypothesis that key driver of asset prices is the devaluation of fiat currency it pays to look at assets against G4 Central bank balance sheets as the denominator, to determine what is a store of value.
Here is the G4 balance sheet - 2009 was when it all started.
Commodities have failed to maintain their purchasing power..
Bonds have failed to maintain their purchasing power...even after rallying for the last decade.
Bitcoin is potentially facing some serious technical headways... the daily DeMark is showing a cluster on 2 13's and a 9 and tomorrow might put in ANOTHER 13!
The weekly is stacking up top counts too...and a larger correction looks very possible