I just wanted to say thank you for a hell of a year here on Twitter.
We've all hung out together, debated, bounced off new ideas, bickered, trolled, celebrated each others victories and encouraged each other and tried to add value to the community.
We've even had fun nights on Friday night booze Twitter (Asia/Oz/NZ Saturday hangover Twitter). We've both kept each other sane over 2020 and driven each other mad, like a family. We've also enjoyed making fun of each other too and not taking ourselves too seriously.
I've tried really hard to add value where I could because that is what creates a vibrant community, where everyone tries to add value in their own way.
I've nailed some really big macro themes and got the dollar totally wrong too, but overall its been a banner year.
Im sorry for all of you who got fed up with my increasing focus on Bitcoin, but I built my thesis in March/April that it would be the most dominant trade we've ever seen over the next 18 months and that the returns would dwarf any other assets.
As a macro guy, if I see something that big with that good a risk reward, most other trades become a distraction.
Sometimes, laser focus is the single most important thing to do.
2021 will likely be another big macro year...
I don't think it will be a set it and forget it year, outside of crypto (and buying dips), but new secular trends are likely to begin to emerge, which we can capture in the years ahead - be it emerging markets or something else.
And I want to give special thanks to those of you who have been with me for my Global Macro Investor journey. That is where all my thinking gets done and shared amongst some very special people over the last 16 years. I still can't believe that everyone pays me to think...
GMI gave rise to Real Vision and Macro Insiders and also to much of the work you see here on Twitter. @TetotRemi has been by my side for the entire journey.
And a HUGE thanks for the tens of thousands of you who have joined Real Vision in our journey too, and what a journey!
Along with the millions of you that watch our content on YouTube, listen to our podcasts or engage with us on Twitter.
In 2020, Real Vision became a really core part of everyones lives as we all sought for knowledge and understanding of the truly complex economic and financial world we all live in.
We've given it our absolute best to help people but we endlessly strive to improve too
2021 will be a HUGE year for Real Vision and Im so delighted to have @coloradotravis helping us navigate rapid growth and change, as we grow into a tech-forward platform and hyper-engaged, large group of financial communities, and not just the best content provider.
We are hard at work building out our community The Exchange, our applied education offerings, our podcast network, our UX and lots of exciting announcements are to come.
This has all been made possible from our members and our investors.
The $25m of capital we raised as a business over the last 6 years has come entirely from our members investments in RV. That is the best testament to all the hard work everyone at Real Vision has done over the years and how supportive our members are of our mission.
And as ever, a MASSIVE thanks to ALL the RV gang and especially to @Damianhorner, my creative genius Co-Founder, confident and crazy plan-hatcher.
But most of all, thank you ALL for putting up with my endless charts, my long tweet threads, my thinking aloud, my questioning of narratives, appalling typing and spelling, getting some things dead wrong and my passion for Real Vision and how it can help change lives.
Family, here is to a great 2021!
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We are at the stage where people I really respect - mean reversionists, value players and rationalists are urging caution in bitcoin.
However, I think reflexivity here is stronger than they can ever possibly imagine. There will be sharp sell offs on negative new and also on no news but people will hope for even better entry on sharp dips and miss it. 1/
And then bitcoin will climb the wall of fear and eventually transition to scale the cliff of incredulity.
This is the most reflexive set up I’ve ever seen in my life. Even wild eyed bulls will shake their heads in dismay.
Tokens are just real-time trading VC bets. If you owned early seed investments with real-time mark to market you'd see the exact same. 80% go to zero, 19% add value and 1% make all the money. Real time marks freak people out.
If you real time marked any VC investment you see it go to near zero numerous times (for Real Vision, probably 6 times). The value comes from adoption and eventually revenues as business models adapt.Most dont survive, its normal and is capitalism.
Thinking everything is a scam because its not BTC is simply ludicrous. It is like taking a snapshot of early VC bets and writing everything off as a zero because its not Google.
Apples and oranges.
The actual money is in the numbers game - Pareto's Law.
Thought: Let's say a start up, like $FB back in the day, raised funding on a dodgy idea, let's say they got traction and the idea didnt look so dodgy so they raised more cash via equity but lets say they agree to an limit on the equity issuance. Is that wrong? XRP (no view).
So, right or wrong?
It is not so clear to me, with my limited knowledge at a macro level....
I also understand Ripple issued equity but Im not sure how totally different this is if you replace the worlds "cryptocurrency" with shares.
All thoughts appreciated. As I said, I have zero view but am not sure of the controversy at a macro level. XRP is being used at least...
So, if the hypothesis that key driver of asset prices is the devaluation of fiat currency it pays to look at assets against G4 Central bank balance sheets as the denominator, to determine what is a store of value.
Here is the G4 balance sheet - 2009 was when it all started.
Commodities have failed to maintain their purchasing power..
Bonds have failed to maintain their purchasing power...even after rallying for the last decade.