Indonesia yesterday reported 12,818 new cases and 238 deaths.

Cases are rising rapidly, low test rate, and high test positivity of 25-30% suggest more cases are being missed.

“Hospitals on Java, the country’s most populous island, are on the brink of collapse...”
Indonesia recently appointed a new Health Minister and there are hopes of a science-based response. The previous HM advocated widespread use of an unproven treatment he developed.

Hopefully they look to nearby Australia for example and support.

sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/c…
Vietnam (population nearly 100 million) continues to see success, reporting only 5 cases yesterday, for a total of 1,536 cases.

All international travelers to Vietnam are quarantined upon arrival. Nearly 18,000 people are currently quarantined.
Vaccinations in Israel and United Arab Emirates continue at a rapid pace. Over the last week, both countries administered vaccine doses to more than 1% of their population each day.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

20 Jan
Denmark continues to improve rapidly, 7-day average is down from 3,600 to 1,300, nearly reduced by a factor of 3.

Restrictions in Denmark until Feb 7 include a 5-person limit on public gatherings and the closure of bars, restaurants and schools. Image
Australian success continues: Two days of no (zero) cases of local transmission. All new cases (25 in two days) were imported from overseas and already quarantined. ImageImageImage
UK case rates are going down significantly, showing that the new variant can be controlled. Yesterday 37,610 new cases, down from a peak of over 68,000.

Today UK reported 1,610 deaths, new high. Another week or two before deaths significantly decline.

bbc.com/news/uk-557221… ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
18 Jan
Canada begins to see cases decline. From a maximum 7 day average of 8,885, yesterday they reported 6,880 cases, and 184 deaths.

Ontario, Quebec sharp declines.
Atlantic Canada continues to have fairly low cases.

NB and NS battle outbreaks. Cases in last two weeks:

New Brunswick: 300
Nova Scotia: 55
Prince Edward Island: 8
Newfoundland and Labrador: 5
Alaska improves in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Given trends and geographical distribution of cases, using a Green Zone Exit Strategy, like in Australia, could allow Alaska to return to normal very quickly.
Read 4 tweets
17 Jan
I drafted my thoughts about a #CovidZero speech for @joebiden, can anyone help with this?

#DraftBidenSpeech

My fellow Americans

1/
There is nothing we can’t do together. Today I am presenting to you a science-based plan to eliminate the coronavirus from the United States. We can meet this challenge as we have met challenges before.

2/
We are not only facing the original coronavirus, we are facing new faster transmitting and potentially vaccination evading mutants. Some of them are already here, some may be here soon, or start here. We have to stop accepting defeat and get ahead of the virus and stop it.

3/
Read 16 tweets
17 Jan
Ireland reports significant reduction in daily cases. Yesterday 3,491, down from peak near 8,000.

Test positivity is high but declined from 25% to 20% in past week.

(See also earlier tweet on UK planned travel restrictions)
Yesterday US State Dept warned U.S. citizens in countries “where adequate COVID-19  testing is not available or  may not be able to satisfy the  requirements, should depart immediately  or prepare to be unable to return to the US…”

sv.usembassy.gov/health-alert-d…
Mexico continues to see increasing daily cases and deaths and medical system overcapacity especially in Mexico City.

Test positivity since September is very high near 45%.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

1/

wsj.com/articles/europ…
As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

2/
Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

3/
Read 17 tweets
16 Jan
Vaccination program not working well?

Solution:

Vaccination seems complex but it is large scale: Many of the same action

Complexity science says medical institutions are not efficient at vaccination. They are organized for the complex task of treating individual patients.

1/
Solution? Retail — pharmacies. They have the right Infrastructure, people, distribution, process, locations,

Million per day? No problem. CVS alone can do it:

2/

See my published analyses:

Yaneer Bar-Yam, Improving the effectiveness of health care and public health: A multi-scale complex systems analysis, American Journal of Public Health 96(3): 459-466 (2006).

3/
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
also at
necsi.edu/improving-the-…
Read 7 tweets

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