I drafted my thoughts about a #CovidZero speech for @joebiden, can anyone help with this?

#DraftBidenSpeech

My fellow Americans

1/
There is nothing we can’t do together. Today I am presenting to you a science-based plan to eliminate the coronavirus from the United States. We can meet this challenge as we have met challenges before.

2/
We are not only facing the original coronavirus, we are facing new faster transmitting and potentially vaccination evading mutants. Some of them are already here, some may be here soon, or start here. We have to stop accepting defeat and get ahead of the virus and stop it.

3/
We have talked about our plan for vaccination. We will vaccinate 100 million in our first 100 days.

4/
But today we must recognize what scientists who are pandemic outbreak experts know, and manifest experience shows, as long as we are reactive the virus grows, causing severe disease and death,

5/
our hearts are torn by its affect on elderly, those with other illnesses, workers, blacks, browns and vulnerable. And even young and healthy may get severely sick and end up with long term disability. Everyone loses dear loved ones.

6/
The vaccine will not solve this problem for months. We need an exit strategy now and there is only one that has been shown to be effective in countries around the world including Australia. Some say Australia is an island but look again, it is larger than the continental US.

7/
Many have argued that we can’t do this or that, but we can stop the coronavirus, no we must stop it. This will not be easy but we do not only take on easy tasks, we do what is hard because short term pain will be long term gain.

8/
We can save lives and we can save the economy by taking a short 5-week pause of any unnecessary activity that would bring people into contact. And by rapidly identifying cases and isolating them, protecting their family and friends, and, crucially,

9/
providing support for those who need it.

We have the money and the compassion to help anyone who needs it and to emerge after 5-weeks with almost no transmission around the country.

10/
We need to carefully track transmission with contact tracing investigations so that we know which communities are without transmission. We can safely open municipalities as soon as they have no transmission.

11/
And get them back to near normal in a few weeks whenever they reach that goal. Their main limitation will be on non-essential travel until other areas are without transmission too.

At the same time we will focus attention and financial support on areas that still need it.

12/
Then we can rapidly contract the areas that still have transmission and states and the country can get back to normal so we can share family occasions, go to restaurants and sports events,

13/
and reopen our economy fully rather than have overwhelmed hospitals and a mostly shut down economy.

For those who will respond that we are asking them to give up on freedom, they are not allowed to park in handicapped spots or run red lights either.

14/
Any community or state that doesn’t go all out to defeat the virus will lag and others will surge ahead to normal. The proof will be in the doing and the freedom it will bring.

15/
It is time to come together as a country and defeat this virus and we will.

16/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

17 Jan
Ireland reports significant reduction in daily cases. Yesterday 3,491, down from peak near 8,000.

Test positivity is high but declined from 25% to 20% in past week.

(See also earlier tweet on UK planned travel restrictions)
Yesterday US State Dept warned U.S. citizens in countries “where adequate COVID-19  testing is not available or  may not be able to satisfy the  requirements, should depart immediately  or prepare to be unable to return to the US…”

sv.usembassy.gov/health-alert-d…
Mexico continues to see increasing daily cases and deaths and medical system overcapacity especially in Mexico City.

Test positivity since September is very high near 45%.

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

1/

wsj.com/articles/europ…
As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

2/
Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

3/
Read 17 tweets
16 Jan
Vaccination program not working well?

Solution:

Vaccination seems complex but it is large scale: Many of the same action

Complexity science says medical institutions are not efficient at vaccination. They are organized for the complex task of treating individual patients.

1/
Solution? Retail — pharmacies. They have the right Infrastructure, people, distribution, process, locations,

Million per day? No problem. CVS alone can do it:

2/

See my published analyses:

Yaneer Bar-Yam, Improving the effectiveness of health care and public health: A multi-scale complex systems analysis, American Journal of Public Health 96(3): 459-466 (2006).

3/
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
also at
necsi.edu/improving-the-…
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
Over 700 participants + livestream to social media for UK ZeroCOVID meeting now

zerocovid.uk/2020/12/19/con…
Michael Baker from NZ talks about Strategic choices in pandemic response

"The big benefit of an elmination strategy is returnnig to normal in 2-3 months"
'An elmination strategy is very simple...'
Read 8 tweets
16 Jan
Yesterday the world recorded 812,212 new cases and 14,780 new deaths. Both are rapidly increasing

Global deaths surpassed 2 million.
Greece has significant improvement in both cases and deaths:

-Daily cases are down from 2,600 to 600 (23% of peak)
-Daily deaths are down from 100 to 50 (50% of peak)

Current lockdown began in early November.
Today Greece extended night curfew, domestic travel restrictions, and stay-at-home order BUT stores & malls open starting Monday. Such soft lockdown is a disaster, see California

Use Green Zone Exit: Identify no transmission areas, protect and open

apnews.com/article/busine…
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
India continues to see significant progress toward containment:

-Daily cases down from 100k to 17k
-Daily deaths down from 1,100 to 200
-Test positivity down from 12% to 2%
Nearly every region is seeing improvement, many of which have very large populations.

Uttar Pradesh has a population of ~200 million, yet they are currently reporting only ~600 cases per day.

Policy details: ndtv.com/india-news/ind…

See more:
endcoronavirus.org/india-states-ut
Japan begins to see improvements in daily cases. Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that it will expand its State of Emergency declaration to now include 11 prefectures, and will ban all foreign nationals from entering the country.

cnn.com/2021/01/13/asi…
Read 4 tweets

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