In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

1/

wsj.com/articles/europ…
As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

2/
Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

3/
While the debate continues, recent studies and outbreaks show that schoolchildren, even younger ones, can play a significant role in spreading infections.

4/
"The recent shutdown of schools was especially dramatic in England. U.K. PM Boris Johnson initially planned to keep elementary schools there open after the Christmas break, but changed course amid soaring infections. After one day, schools were closed until further notice

5/
..an antibody survey conducted by researchers in Geneva in May and December, using thousands of random samples, found that children of age 6 to 18 were getting infected as often as young adults.

6/
"One reason for this: The Swiss city’s schools have been open since the summer, while restrictions have been placed on adults, meaning schoolchildren played a bigger role in transmitting the virus during the autumn surge, Mr. Flahault said.

7/
"In Austria, a nationwide survey by universities and medical institutes found that children under 10 showed a similar rate of infection to those between 11 and 14, and that the children in general were getting infected as often as teachers

8/
“That is very different to what has been claimed for months, that younger children are less frequently infected”

"The study, funded by the government, regularly analyzes samples from up to 15,000 children between the age of 6 and 15, as well as teachers who show no symptoms.

9/
"Scientists also point to data from U.K.’s Office for National Statistics..weekly random survey.. Just before the Christmas break, when schools were still open, the positivity rate among children was higher than in most adult groups, especially in those older than 11.

10/
"German virologist Christian Drosten said in his weekly podcast that the study “pretty much answers the question of how children contribute to the pandemic.”

11/
"At least 30 cases of the more contagious U.K. variant were discovered at an elementary school in the Dutch village of Bergschenhoek, near Rotterdam, in December. Tests.on some 750 children, teachers and their relatives found that roughly 10% were infected with the virus.

12.
"In Germany, researchers found that a majority of some 40 cases at a school in Hamburg in September were likely linked to a single person, which some scientists say highlights the risk of schools becoming Covid-19 clusters.

13/
"..opening schools while the U.K. variant spreads in Europe bears a big risk. “We should be careful now"

14/
This thread 1-15/ is all from the @WSJ article

15/
My comment /14 "We should be careful now" should win an award for understatement.
Everyone who wants to stop school openings or close schools that are opened should organize with others. We can introduce you to teams that are already organizing

Multiple ways to connect:
DM me
Signup form bit.ly/covidzerovolun…
Click on Join on endcoronavirus.org

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More from @yaneerbaryam

17 Jan
I drafted my thoughts about a #CovidZero speech for @JoeBiden, can anyone help with this?

#DraftBidenSpeech

My fellow Americans

1/
There is nothing we can’t do together. Today I am presenting to you a science-based plan to eliminate the coronavirus from the United States. We can meet this challenge as we have met challenges before.

2/
We are not only facing the original coronavirus, we are facing new faster transmitting and potentially vaccination evading mutants. Some of them are already here, some may be here soon, or start here. We have to stop accepting defeat and get ahead of the virus and stop it.

3/
Read 11 tweets
17 Jan
Ireland reports significant reduction in daily cases. Yesterday 3,491, down from peak near 8,000.

Test positivity is high but declined from 25% to 20% in past week.

(See also earlier tweet on UK planned travel restrictions) ImageImage
Yesterday US State Dept warned U.S. citizens in countries “where adequate COVID-19  testing is not available or  may not be able to satisfy the  requirements, should depart immediately  or prepare to be unable to return to the US…”

sv.usembassy.gov/health-alert-d…
Mexico continues to see increasing daily cases and deaths and medical system overcapacity especially in Mexico City.

Test positivity since September is very high near 45%.

reuters.com/article/us-hea… ImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
Vaccination program not working well?

Solution:

Vaccination seems complex but it is large scale: Many of the same action

Complexity science says medical institutions are not efficient at vaccination. They are organized for the complex task of treating individual patients.

1/
Solution? Retail — pharmacies. They have the right Infrastructure, people, distribution, process, locations,

Million per day? No problem. CVS alone can do it:

2/

See my published analyses:

Yaneer Bar-Yam, Improving the effectiveness of health care and public health: A multi-scale complex systems analysis, American Journal of Public Health 96(3): 459-466 (2006).

3/
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
also at
necsi.edu/improving-the-…
Read 7 tweets
16 Jan
Over 700 participants + livestream to social media for UK ZeroCOVID meeting now

zerocovid.uk/2020/12/19/con…
Michael Baker from NZ talks about Strategic choices in pandemic response

"The big benefit of an elmination strategy is returnnig to normal in 2-3 months"
'An elmination strategy is very simple...'
Read 8 tweets
16 Jan
Yesterday the world recorded 812,212 new cases and 14,780 new deaths. Both are rapidly increasing

Global deaths surpassed 2 million.
Greece has significant improvement in both cases and deaths:

-Daily cases are down from 2,600 to 600 (23% of peak)
-Daily deaths are down from 100 to 50 (50% of peak)

Current lockdown began in early November.
Today Greece extended night curfew, domestic travel restrictions, and stay-at-home order BUT stores & malls open starting Monday. Such soft lockdown is a disaster, see California

Use Green Zone Exit: Identify no transmission areas, protect and open

apnews.com/article/busine…
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
India continues to see significant progress toward containment:

-Daily cases down from 100k to 17k
-Daily deaths down from 1,100 to 200
-Test positivity down from 12% to 2%
Nearly every region is seeing improvement, many of which have very large populations.

Uttar Pradesh has a population of ~200 million, yet they are currently reporting only ~600 cases per day.

Policy details: ndtv.com/india-news/ind…

See more:
endcoronavirus.org/india-states-ut
Japan begins to see improvements in daily cases. Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that it will expand its State of Emergency declaration to now include 11 prefectures, and will ban all foreign nationals from entering the country.

cnn.com/2021/01/13/asi…
Read 4 tweets

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